viernes, 14 de enero de 2011
Happy Holiday Report Less Room at the Inn in Mexico
Happy holiday report: Less room at the inn
Escrito por Real Estrategy 2 Internacional Ene 10, 2011 Tourism officials in Mexico’s resort destinations of Cancun, Cozumel and the Riviera Maya on the Mexican Caribbean coast and in Puerto Vallarta and Acapulco on the Pacific coast reported that holiday traffic was up from a year ago.
Acapulco Mayor Jose Luis Avila Sanchez said hotels in that city were nearly full over the Christmas-New Year period.
Cancun’s hotel occupancy rate was running at 77% in December, compared with 51% at the same time last year, according to Rodrigo de la Pena Segura, president of the city’s hotel association. Segura said that the holiday period was expected to top out at 85% occupancy.
For all of Mexico, the number of foreign visitors and domestic travelers was expected to total 16.1 million throughout the month of December.
Tourism revenue in Mexico’s resort areas increased 7.1% from January through October 2010, compared with the same months in 2009, according to the Mexican Tourism Ministry. Total visitor spending for that 10-month stretch amounted to $9.8 billion, helped in part by numerous low-cost tropical packages flooding the marketplace.
“Safety is a problem only in some parts of Mexico, and crime has not affected the major tourist areas of the country,” said Miguel Torruco Marques, president of the National Tourism Confederation. The NTC projected that the overall visitor count for 2010 would total 22.4 million foreigners, a 4.7% jump from 2009.
American Express reported that air travel to Mexico grew 6% in 2010 compared with 2009.
http://www.tibesarealty.com.mx/
www.tibesarealty.com.mx/wordpress/
By: Gay Nagle Myers/ Travel Weekly
Escrito por Real Estrategy 2 Internacional Ene 10, 2011 Tourism officials in Mexico’s resort destinations of Cancun, Cozumel and the Riviera Maya on the Mexican Caribbean coast and in Puerto Vallarta and Acapulco on the Pacific coast reported that holiday traffic was up from a year ago.
Acapulco Mayor Jose Luis Avila Sanchez said hotels in that city were nearly full over the Christmas-New Year period.
Cancun’s hotel occupancy rate was running at 77% in December, compared with 51% at the same time last year, according to Rodrigo de la Pena Segura, president of the city’s hotel association. Segura said that the holiday period was expected to top out at 85% occupancy.
For all of Mexico, the number of foreign visitors and domestic travelers was expected to total 16.1 million throughout the month of December.
Tourism revenue in Mexico’s resort areas increased 7.1% from January through October 2010, compared with the same months in 2009, according to the Mexican Tourism Ministry. Total visitor spending for that 10-month stretch amounted to $9.8 billion, helped in part by numerous low-cost tropical packages flooding the marketplace.
“Safety is a problem only in some parts of Mexico, and crime has not affected the major tourist areas of the country,” said Miguel Torruco Marques, president of the National Tourism Confederation. The NTC projected that the overall visitor count for 2010 would total 22.4 million foreigners, a 4.7% jump from 2009.
American Express reported that air travel to Mexico grew 6% in 2010 compared with 2009.
http://www.tibesarealty.com.mx/
www.tibesarealty.com.mx/wordpress/
By: Gay Nagle Myers/ Travel Weekly
The 41 Places To Go In 2011
The 41 Places to Go in 2011
Escrito por Real Estrategy 2 Internacional Ene 12, 2011 8. Loreto, Mexico.- A beach hideaway with sport fishing gets a luxury resort.
Long known for sport fishing, Loreto, on Baja California Sur’s eastern coast, is poised to become one of Mexico’s next luxury destinations.
On Wednesday, Villa Group Resorts, one of Mexico’s largest privately owned hotel groups, will open a $60 million Villa del Palmar resort with three restaurants, a 20,000-square-foot turtle-shaped pool and 150 suites from $250 to $1,500 a night. The resort is the first phase of an 1,800-acre development, Danzante Ba. It will add seven resort hotels, restaurants and a Rees Jones golf course.
Primeros 10 lugares: 1) Santiago, Chile. 2) San Juan Islands, Wash. 3) Koyh Samui, Tailandia. 4) Islandia. 5) Milán. 6) República de Georgia. 7) Londres. Loreto. 9) Park City, Utah y 10) Cali, Colombia.
http://www.tibesarealty.com.mx/
www.tibesarealty.com.mx/wordpress/
The New York Times
Escrito por Real Estrategy 2 Internacional Ene 12, 2011 8. Loreto, Mexico.- A beach hideaway with sport fishing gets a luxury resort.
Long known for sport fishing, Loreto, on Baja California Sur’s eastern coast, is poised to become one of Mexico’s next luxury destinations.
On Wednesday, Villa Group Resorts, one of Mexico’s largest privately owned hotel groups, will open a $60 million Villa del Palmar resort with three restaurants, a 20,000-square-foot turtle-shaped pool and 150 suites from $250 to $1,500 a night. The resort is the first phase of an 1,800-acre development, Danzante Ba. It will add seven resort hotels, restaurants and a Rees Jones golf course.
Primeros 10 lugares: 1) Santiago, Chile. 2) San Juan Islands, Wash. 3) Koyh Samui, Tailandia. 4) Islandia. 5) Milán. 6) República de Georgia. 7) Londres. Loreto. 9) Park City, Utah y 10) Cali, Colombia.
http://www.tibesarealty.com.mx/
www.tibesarealty.com.mx/wordpress/
The New York Times
Economic Forecasts For Mexico
Año 16, Número 01 EXPECTATIVAS ECONÓMICAS PARA MÉXICO 7 de enero de 2011
Year 16, Number 01 ECONOMIC FORECASTS FOR MEXICO January 7, 2011
Acus Consultores Alberto Calva Acus Consulting
www.AcusConsultores.com.mx 1 de/of 18 www.AcusConsulting.com
Ni Acus Consultores, S.C. ni Alberto Calva Mercado se hacen responsables por las decisiones que se tomen con base en la información y
comentarios aquí presentados, ni por la exactitud de las cifras. Neither Acus Consulting. nor Alberto Calva are responsible for any decisions
made based on the information or comments here presented, neither fo r the accuracy of the figures.
EXPECTATIVAS
ECONÓMICAS
PARA
MÉXICO
ECONOMIC
FORECASTS
FOR
MEXICO
7 de enero de 2011 January 7, 2011
Contenido
Comentarios en español e inglés
(página 2 a 6)
Tablas de datos en español
(página 7 a 12)
Tablas de datos en inglés
(página 13 a 18)
Contents
Comments in Spanish and English
(pages 2 to 6)
Tables of figures in Spanish
(pages 7 a 12)
Tables of figures in English
(pages 13 to 18)
Esta publicación es elaborada por Acus Consultores y
Alberto Calva.
Este documento puede consultarse en www.acus.com.mx
Su objetivo de este documento es apoyar al ejecutivo en su
proceso de toma de decisiones a través de presentar de
forma concisa y sencilla la información sobre las
cambiantes expectativas económicas que hay disponibles
para México.
Ni Acus Consultores ni Alberto Calva se hacen
responsables por las decisiones que se tomen con base en
la información y comentarios aquí presentados, ni por la
exactitud de las cifras.
This document is prepared by Acus Consulting and
Alberto Calva.
This document is available at www.AcusConsulting.com
The purpose of this document is to support the executive’s
decision making process by presenting in a concise and
simple way the available information regarding the
changing economic forecasts for Mexico.
Neither Acus Consulting nor Alberto Calva are responsible
for any decisions made based on the information or
comments here presented, neither for the accuracy of the
figures.
Año 16, Número 01 EXPECTATIVAS ECONÓMICAS PARA MÉXICO 7 de enero de 2011
Year 16, Number 01 ECONOMIC FORECASTS FOR MEXICO January 7, 2011
Acus Consultores Alberto Calva Acus Consulting
www.AcusConsultores.com.mx 2 de/of 18 www.AcusConsulting.com
Ni Acus Consultores, S.C. ni Alberto Calva Mercado se hacen responsables por las decisiones que se tomen con base en la información y
comentarios aquí presentados, ni por la exactitud de las cifras. Neither Acus Consulting. nor Alberto Calva are responsible for any decisions
made based on the information or comments here presented, neither fo r the accuracy of the figures.
7 de enero de 2011
Estos son los comentarios a las tablas adjuntas de
nuestra síntesis correspondiente al mes de enero de
2011 sobre “Expectativas Económicas para
México”. Acus Consultores ha estado preparando
este informe por casi dieciseis años. Esta síntesis
mensual se distribuye en forma gratuita para nuestros
clientes y amigos. Está llegando a cerca de quince
mil personas hoy en día.
La información presentada corresponde a la
encuesta mensual que elabora el Banco de México
entre 29 instituciones privadas. La encuesta se
realizó del 7 al 15 de diciembre de 2010.
a) Estimaciones para 2010 a 2012 (página 7). La
estimación de inflación para el año 2011 es de
3.82% (3.77% el mes pasado) y para el año 2012
es de 3.78% (3.75% el mes pasado). La estimación
para el tipo de cambio es de 12.53 para el cierre de
2011 (12.55 el mes pasado) y 12.75 para el cierre
de 2012.
La estimación para la tasa de Cetes para el cierre de
2011 es de 4.70% (4.73% el mes pasado) y 5.82%
para el cierre de 2012. Por último, la tasa de
crecimiento del producto interno bruto (PIB)
estimada para el año 2010 es de 5.08% (5.03% el
mes pasado), 3.59% para 2011 (3.46% el mes
pasado) y 4.04% para 2012 (4.01% el mes
pasado).
La tasa estimada para el crecimiento del PIB de los
Estados Unidos para el año de 2010 es 2.8% (2.7%
el mes pasado) y 2.7% para 2011 (2.5% el mes
pasado).
January 7, 2011
These are the comments to the charts of the report
for January 2011 titled “Economic Forecasts for
Mexico”. Acus Consulting has been preparing this
report for almost sixteen years. We send this report
free of any charge every month to clients and friends.
We are reaching today close to fifteen thousand
persons.
The information presented is based on Banco de
Mexico’s (Mexico’s central bank) monthly survey
amongst 29 private firms. The survey took place
from December 7 to 15, 2010.
a) Forecasts for 2010 to 2012 (page 13). The
inflation rate forecasted for this year 2011 is 3.82%
(3.77% last month) and 3.78% for year 2012
(3.75% last month). Concerning the exchange rate,
the forecast is 12.53 for year end 2011 (12.55 last
month) and 12.75 for year end 2012.
The forecast for Cetes (the Mexican government
treasury bill) interest rate for the close of 2011 is
4.70% (4.73% last month) and 5.82% for the close
of 2012. At last, the expected growth rate for the
gross domestic product (GDP) for the year 2010 is
5.08% (5.03% last month), 3.59% for 2011 (3.46%
last month) and 4.04% for 2012 (4.01% last
month).
The forecasted US GDP growth rate for year 2010
is 2.8% (2.7% last month) and 2.7% for 2011
(2.5% last month).
Año 16, Número 01 EXPECTATIVAS ECONÓMICAS PARA MÉXICO 7 de enero de 2011
Year 16, Number 01 ECONOMIC FORECASTS FOR MEXICO January 7, 2011
Acus Consultores Alberto Calva Acus Consulting
www.AcusConsultores.com.mx 3 de/of 18 www.AcusConsulting.com
Ni Acus Consultores, S.C. ni Alberto Calva Mercado se hacen responsables por las decisiones que se tomen con base en la información y
comentarios aquí presentados, ni por la exactitud de las cifras. Neither Acus Consulting. nor Alberto Calva are responsible for any decisions
made based on the information or comments here presented, neither fo r the accuracy of the figures.
En esta misma página 7 se presenta información
sobre las expectativas para la balanza comercial, el
saldo en cuenta corriente, la inversión extranjera
directa y el precio promedio para mezcla de
exportación del petróleo mexicano. En este último
caso, el precio promedio para 2011 de la mezcla de
exportación del petróleo mexicano se estima en
74.14 dólares por barril.
b) Mercados de futuros (página 8). En esta página
se puede apreciar información acerca de los
mercados de futuros. Para la paridad peso-dólar se
opera un tipo de cambio en promedio de 12.78 para
diciembre de 2011 (13.21 hace tres meses y 14.36
hace un año), 13.34 para diciembre de 2012 (13.80
hace tres meses y 14.98 hace un año) y 13.84 para
diciembre de 2013 (14.53 hace tres meses).
En esta página también se puede ver información
sobre los futuros del MXN-EUR, del USD-EUR,
del USD-CAD, así como de las tasas para la TIIE,
de los Cetes y la Bolsa de Valores en México.
c) Cambio en las expectativas (página 9). Los
cambios en las expectativas con base en las
encuestas que se realizan cada mes implican que el
entorno es tan cambiante que no podemos basar
nuestra planeación en un escenario inicial fijo y
constante. Es importante mantener un monitoreo
constante sobre el cambio de tendencia de las
distintas variables. La planeación es un proceso
continuo y no un evento aislado que se da solo al
inicio o final del año. En esta página se puede ver la
evolución de los números en los últimos meses.
Por ejemplo, el estimado de inflación para 2010 era
In this same page 13 you can see information
regarding the forecasts for the commercial balance,
the current account, the foreign direct investment and
the average price for the Mexican petroleum’s
exportation mix. Regarding the average price in
2011 for the Mexican petroleum’s exportation mix
the forecast is 74.14 USD per barrel.
b) Future markets (page 14). In this page you can
see information regarding future markets for the
exchange rate. For the MXN-USD future market
the exchange rate has had an average quote at 12.78
for December 2011 (13.21 three months ago and
14.36 a year ago), 13.34 for December 2012
(13.80 three months ago and 14.98 a year ago) and
13.84 for December 2013 (14.53 three months
ago).
In this page you can also see information regarding
the future rate for the MXN-EUR the USD-EUR,
the USD-CAD, as well as the rates for the Mexican
TIIE, Cetes and the Mexican Stock Exchange.
c) Trends in the forecasts (page 15). The changes in
the forecasted figures based on the monthly surveys
mean that the environment is constantly changing and
that we cannot base our planning process on a
constant scenario. It is necessary to permanently
monitor the changing trends of the different
economic variables. Planning is a non-stop process
and not a one-time event at the beginning or end of
each year. In this page we can the change in the
figures for the last months.
For example, the forecast for the inflation rate for
Año 16, Número 01 EXPECTATIVAS ECONÓMICAS PARA MÉXICO 7 de enero de 2011
Year 16, Number 01 ECONOMIC FORECASTS FOR MEXICO January 7, 2011
Acus Consultores Alberto Calva Acus Consulting
www.AcusConsultores.com.mx 4 de/of 18 www.AcusConsulting.com
Ni Acus Consultores, S.C. ni Alberto Calva Mercado se hacen responsables por las decisiones que se tomen con base en la información y
comentarios aquí presentados, ni por la exactitud de las cifras. Neither Acus Consulting. nor Alberto Calva are responsible for any decisions
made based on the information or comments here presented, neither fo r the accuracy of the figures.
3.96% en diciembe de 2008 y la inflación real
observada para 2010 fue de 4.40%. El estimado de
tipo de cambio para el cierre de 2010 llego a ser
14.01 en febrero de 2009 y el cierre real en
diciembre de 2010 fue 12.36. El estimado de
crecimiento del PIB para 2009 era 3.31% en mayo
de 2008, -0.11% en diciembre de 2008 y el dato
real fue -6.1%. Para 2010 el crecimiento esperado
del PIB llegó a ser 1.62% en marzo de 2009 y
ahora, en el mes de diciembre de 2010 es 5.08%.
d) Clima de negocios (página 10). En este mes, el
43% (36% hace un mes y 67% hace un año) opina
que mejorará la situación en los próximos seis
meses. El 54% (61% hace un mes y 22% hace un
año) opina que permanecerá igual. El 4% (4% hace
un mes y 11% hace un año) de los encuestados
opina que la situación en los próximos seis meses
con respecto a los seis meses anteriores empeorará.
El momento más pesimista se vio en noviembre y
diciembre de 2008 cuando el 87% opinaba que la
situación empeoraría. Por el contrario, el periodo
más optimista se dio de febrero a abril de 2010,
siendo más conservador el pronóstico del clima de
negocios en las encuestas de agosto a octubre.
e) Indicadores de confianza (página 11). El
escenario sobre indicadores de confianza actuales y
futuros de la situación económica de México está
como sigue. El 96% opina que la economía
mexicana esta mejor que hace un año (93% el mes
pasado y 91% hace tres meses). El 79% opina que
la evolución económica del país para los siguientes
seis meses será favorable (79% el mes pasado y
53% hace tres meses). El 79% opina que habrá un
aumento en el empleo formal (75% el mes pasado y
2010 was 3.96% in December 2008 the real figure
for 2010 was 4.40%. The forecast for the exchange
rate for the close of 2010 was 14.01 in February
2009 and the real closing figure for December 2010
was 12.36. The forecasted growth rate for the GDP
for 2009 was 3.31% in May 2008, -0.11% in
December 2008 and the actual figure for the year
2009 was -6.1%. For 2010 the forecast for the
GDP growth rate went to a minimum of 1.62% in
March 2009 and now, in December 2010, the
forecast is 5.08%.
d) Business climate (page 16). In this month’s
survey, 43% (36% a month ago and 67% a year
ago) believe that the situation over the next six
months will be better. Meanwhile, 54% (61% a
month ago and 22% a year ago) believe it will
remain the same. This month 4% (4% a month ago
and 11% a year ago) believe that the situation in the
next six months compared with that in the previous
six months will be worse. The most pessimistic
moment was in November and December 2008
when 87% believed that the situation would be
worse. On the other side, the most optimistic period
was in the period February to April 2010. In the
surveys of August to October the forecast for the
business climate is less optimistic.
e) Confidence levels (page 17). The answers
regarding the levels of trust on the present and future
economic situation in Mexico are as follows. 96%
expressed that the Mexican economy is better than a
year ago (93% last month and 91% three months
ago) believe this. 79% expressed that the Mexican
economic evolution will be favorable in the next six
months (79% last month and 53% three months
ago). 79% expressed that there will be an increase
on the employment (75% last month and 66% three
Año 16, Número 01 EXPECTATIVAS ECONÓMICAS PARA MÉXICO 7 de enero de 2011
Year 16, Number 01 ECONOMIC FORECASTS FOR MEXICO January 7, 2011
Acus Consultores Alberto Calva Acus Consulting
www.AcusConsultores.com.mx 5 de/of 18 www.AcusConsulting.com
Ni Acus Consultores, S.C. ni Alberto Calva Mercado se hacen responsables por las decisiones que se tomen con base en la información y
comentarios aquí presentados, ni por la exactitud de las cifras. Neither Acus Consulting. nor Alberto Calva are responsible for any decisions
made based on the information or comments here presented, neither fo r the accuracy of the figures.
66% tres meses). Por último, el 46% opina que es
un buen momento para invertir (33% el mes pasado
y 22% hace tres meses).
f) Factores que pueden limitar la recuperación
económica (página 12). Por último se muestran los
factores que se estima podrían limitar la
recuperación económica en México. Los factores
externos han tenido distinto peso en los últimos
meses. En este mes de diciembre de 2010, se
considera que el 32% son factores externos. Es
decir, los factores domésticos representan el 68%.
Este mes los factores más importantes son la
debilidad mercado externo y de la economía mundial
(ext) (21%, 19% el mes pasado), problemas de
inseguridad pública (dom) (21%, 19% el mes
pasado), la ausencia de reformas estructurales
(dom) (19%, 20% el mes pasado), debilidad del
mercado interno (dom) (12%, 10% el mes pasado),
la inestabilidad financiera internacional (ext) (11%,
17% el mes pasado) y la incertidumbre en la
situación económica interna (dom) (4%, 3% el mes
pasado). Estos seis primeros factores, cuatro
domésticos y dos externos, representan el 88% del
total de factores que podrían limitar el ritmo de
recuperación de la actividad económica.
Esperamos que esta información les sea útil.
Nosotros, en Acus Consultores, continuamos con
nuestro trabajo de asesoría en finanzas corporativas
y estrategia. Nuestra área de educación continua
desarrolla e imparte seminarios ejecutivos sobre
estas mismas áreas de especialidad.
Saludos.
months ago). At last, 46% expressed that it is a
good time for investment (33% last month and 22%
three months ago).
f) Factors that could limit the economic recovery
(page 18). At last, the factors that are perceived that
could limit the Mexican economic recovery are here
presented. The external factors have had different
weight in the last months. This month of December
2010 the external factors represent 32% of the total.
Therefore, domestic factors represent 68% of the
weight this month.
This month the most important factors are foreign
markets and world economy weakness (ext) (21%,
19% last month), public insecurity problems (dom)
(21%, 19% last month), the lack of structural
reforms (dom) (19%, 20% last month), domestic
market weakness (dom) (12%, 10% last month), the
international financial instability (ext) (11%, 17% last
month), and the uncertainty on domestic economic
situation (dom) (4%, 3% last month). These first six
factors, four of them domestic and two external,
represent a weight of 88% of all the factors that
could limit the recovery rate of the economic activity.
We hope this information can be useful for you. We,
at Acus Consulting, keep working in our consulting
practice in corporate finance and strategy. We also
continue offering our continuous education classes
and executive seminars in these same fields of
expertise.
Regards.
Año 16, Número 01 EXPECTATIVAS ECONÓMICAS PARA MÉXICO 7 de enero de 2011
Year 16, Number 01 ECONOMIC FORECASTS FOR MEXICO January 7, 2011
Acus Consultores Alberto Calva Acus Consulting
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Ni Acus Consultores, S.C. ni Alberto Calva Mercado se hacen responsables por las decisiones que se tomen con base en la información y
comentarios aquí presentados, ni por la exactitud de las cifras. Neither Acus Consulting. nor Alberto Calva are responsible for any decisions
made based on the information or comments here presented, neither fo r the accuracy of the figures.
Alberto Calva
Acus Consultores
www.AcusConsultores.com.mx
acalva@acus.com.mx
Tel. México: (55)8421-8401
(55)4624-0238
Tel. Canadá: 416-824-1924
647-724-0625
Tel. EE.UU.: 646-233-3029
Nota: Si desea recibir esta información por correo
electrónico favor de enviarnos sus datos (nombre, empresa,
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En Acus Consultores respetamos sus datos personales. No
vendemos ni rentamos nuestra base de datos, ni damos
dato alguno a ningún individuo o empresa. Nuestra base de
datos solo se utiliza para enviar informes y correos
generados por nuestra firma.
Responsabilidad: No nos hacemos responsables por la
exactitud de las cifras presentadas, ni por las decisiones
que se tomen con base en nuestros comentarios o la
información adjunta.
Reproducción y reenvío de este reporte: Si desea reenviar
este reporte o imprimirlo y reproducirlo, esto está permitido
por nosotros, siempre y cuando el reenvío o reproducción
sea en forma total del documento, se mantenga el nombre y
crédito de los autores, y no se obtenga ningún lucro con
esto.
Alberto Calva
Acus Consulting
www.AcusConsulting.com
acalva@acusconsulting.com
Tel. Canada: 416-824-1924
647-724-0625
Tel. Mexico: (55)8421-841
(55)4624-0238
Tel. USA.: 646-233-3029
Note: If you want to receive this information by e-mail,
please send us your information (name, company, position,
city and country, and email address).
In Acus Consulting we respect your privacy. We do not
sell or rent our data base, neither we give any data to any
person or company. Our data base is used only to send
reports and emails prepared by our firm.
Responsibility: We are not responsible for the accuracy of
the figures here presented, neither for the decisions taken
based on this information or based on our comments.
Reproduction and resending of this report: If you want to
resend this report or if you want to print and copy it, this is
permitted by us, as far as the resend or the printing and
copying is always made of the whole report, as far as the
name and credit for the authors is maintained, and as far as
no profit is made from this.
Año 16, Número 01 EXPECTATIVAS ECONÓMICAS PARA MÉXICO 7 de enero de 2011
Year 16, Number 01 ECONOMIC FORECASTS FOR MEXICO January 7, 2011
Acus Consultores Alberto Calva Acus Consulting
www.AcusConsultores.com.mx 7 de/of 18 www.AcusConsulting.com
Ni Acus Consultores, S.C. ni Alberto Calva Mercado se hacen responsables por las decisiones que se tomen con base en la información y
comentarios aquí presentados, ni por la exactitud de las cifras. Neither Acus Consulting. nor Alberto Calva are responsible for any decisions
made based on the information or comments here presented, neither fo r the accuracy of the figures.
EXPECTATIVAS ECONOMICAS PARA MEXICO
Encuesta mensual de Banxico entre instituciones privadas
Periodo de la encuesta:
7 al 15 de diciembre de 2010
Promedio
este mes
Promedio
mes anterior
Promedio hace
dos meses
Inflación (2011)
(2012)
3.82%
3.78%
3.77%
3.75%
3.73%
3.78%
Tipo de cambio (cierre 2011)
(cierre 2012)
12.53
12.75
12.55
N/D
12.69
N/D
Cetes 28 días (cierre 2011)
(cierre 2012)
4.70%
5.82%
4.73%
N/D
5.06%
N/D
TIIE (tasa interbancaria) (cierre 2011)
(cierre 2012)
4.77%
5.82%
4.75%
N/D
5.01%
N/D
PIB México (tasa de crecimiento) (2010)
(2011)
(2012)
5.08%
3.59%
4.04%
5.03%
3.46%
4.01%
4.75%
3.52%
4.06%
PIB EE.UU. (tasa de crecimiento) (2010)
(2011)
2.8%
2.7%
2.7%
2.5%
2.7%
2.5%
Incremento salarial anual (esperado este mes)
(para próximo mes)
4.47%
4.49%
4.52%
4.37%
4.53%
3.62%
Déficit balanza comercial (2010)
(millones de USD) (2011)
5,285
9,980
5,213
10,964
5,750
11,606
Déficit cuenta corriente (2010)
(millones de USD) (2011)
6,839
12,751
7,276
12,427
7,314
13,021
Flujo de inversión extranjera directa (2010)
(millones de USD) (2011)
18,391
19,808
18,711
19,478
18,857
19,913
Precio promedio petróleo mezcla de exportación
(USD por barril) promedio año 2011
promedio primer trimestre 2011
promedio segundo trimestre 2011
74.14
74.42
74.24
N/D
N/D
N/D
N/D
N/D
N/D
Año 16, Número 01 EXPECTATIVAS ECONÓMICAS PARA MÉXICO 7 de enero de 2011
Year 16, Number 01 ECONOMIC FORECASTS FOR MEXICO January 7, 2011
Acus Consultores Alberto Calva Acus Consulting
www.AcusConsultores.com.mx 8 de/of 18 www.AcusConsulting.com
Ni Acus Consultores, S.C. ni Alberto Calva Mercado se hacen responsables por las decisiones que se tomen con base en la información y
comentarios aquí presentados, ni por la exactitud de las cifras. Neither Acus Consulting. nor Alberto Calva are responsible for any decisions
made based on the information or comments here presented, neither fo r the accuracy of the figures.
EXPECTATIVAS ECONOMICAS PARA MEXICO
Mercados de futuros
(al 31 de diciembre de 2010)
Jun. 2011 Dic. 2011 Jun. 2012 Dic. 2012 Dic. 2013
MXN-USD Chicago 12.54 12.77 13.03 N/D N/D
MXN-USD MexDer 12.52 12.79 13.07 13.34 13.84
MXN-EUR MexDer 16.79 17.10 N/D N/D N/D
USD-EUR Chicago 1.332 1.335 1.334 N/D N/D
USD-CAD Chicago 1.002 0.996 0.991 N/D N/D
TIIE 28 días MexDer 4.98% 5.52% 5.78% 6.26% 7.33%
Cetes 91 días MexDer 4.78% 5.00% 5.61% 6.81% 7.22%
Bolsa Mexicana de
Valores MexDer (índice
en puntos)
39,045 N/D N/D N/D N/D
Bolsa Mexicana de
Valores MexDer
(incremento %)
1.28%
versus
dic.2010
N/D N/D N/D N/D
Chicago: Chicago Mercantile Exchange
MexDer: Mercado Mexicano de Derivados,
Peso: Peso mexicano
USD: Dólar de los EE.UU.
CAD: Dólar canadiense
EUR: Euro
TIIE: Tasa de interés interbancaria de equilibrio en México
Cetes: Certificados de la Tesorería de la Federación en México
IPC de la BMV: Indice de Precios y Cotizaciones de la Bolsa Mexicana de Valores
Año 16, Número 01 EXPECTATIVAS ECONÓMICAS PARA MÉXICO 7 de enero de 2011
Year 16, Number 01 ECONOMIC FORECASTS FOR MEXICO January 7, 2011
Acus Consultores Alberto Calva Acus Consulting
www.AcusConsultores.com.mx 9 de/of 18 www.AcusConsulting.com
Ni Acus Consultores, S.C. ni Alberto Calva Mercado se hacen responsables por las decisiones que se tomen con base en la información y
comentarios aquí presentados, ni por la exactitud de las cifras. Neither Acus Consulting. nor Alberto Calva are responsible for any decisions
made based on the information or comments here presented, neither fo r the accuracy of the figures.
EXPECTATIVAS ECONOMICAS PARA MEXICO
Evolución en los resultados de las encuestas de Banco de México
entre instituciones privadas: cambios de expectativas
Encuesta
efectuada
en el mes
de:
Inflación
2010
Inflación
2011
Tipo de
cambio
cierre
2009
Tipo de
cambio
cierre
2010
Cetes 28
días
cierre
2010
Crecimiento
del PIB
2009
Crecimiento
del PIB
2010
Ene. 2009 3.74% 3.52% 13.50 13.61 6.69% -1.16% 2.08%
Feb. 2009 3.76% 3.57% 14.10 14.01 6.57% -1.92% 2.00%
Mar. 2009 3.78% 3.59% 14.25 13.99 6.10% -3.32% 1.62%
Abr. 2009 3.80% 3.68% 13.65 13.64 5.88% -4.02% 1.68%
May. 2009 3.82% 3.70% 13.45 13.35 5.61% -5.82% 2.09%
Jun. 2009 3.86% 3.70% 13.47 13.47 5.30% -6.31% 2.05%
Jul. 2009 3.90% 3.68% 13.48 13.42 5.24% -6.93% 2.54%
Ago. 2009 4.01% 3.75% 13.22 13.33 5.38% -7.19% 2.85%
Sep. 2009 4.28% 3.83% 13.37 13.42 5.43% -7.18% 2.82%
Oct. 2009 4.54% 3.86% 13.31 13.29 5.61% -7.15% 2.94%
Nov. 2009 4.86% 4.04% 13.16 13.22 5.68% -7.02% 2.93%
Dic. 2009 5.04% 3.98% N/A 13.04 5.52% -7.03% 3.12%
Ene. 2010 4.93% 3.91% N/A 12.97 5.46% -6.93% 3.28%
Feb. 2010 5.21% 3.89% N/A 13.04 5.29% N/A 3.87%
Mar. 2010 5.28% 3.97% N/A 12.70 5.20% N/A 4.08%
Abr. 2010 5.19% 3.98% N/A 12.45 5.00% N/A 4.18%
May. 2010 4.94% 3.95% N/A 12.48 4.78% N/A 4.31%
Jun. 2010 4.66% 3.92% N/A 12.50 4.74% N/A 4.37%
Jul. 2010 4.59% 3.90% N/A 12.57 4.61% N/A 4.52%
Ago. 2010 4.43% 3.82% N/A 12.66 4.58% N/A 4.62%
Sep. 2010 4.33% 3.84% N/A 12.66 4.56% N/A 4.62%
Oct. 2010 4.30% 3.73% N/A 12.53 4.41% N/A 4.75%
Nov. 2010 4.38% 3.77% N/A 12.37 4.30% N/A 5.03%
Dic. 2010 4.40% 3.82% N/A N/A N/A N/A 5.08%
Dato real 4.40% N/A 13.08 12.36 4.30% -6.5% N/A
Nota: “N/A” implica que no se publicó encuesta en ese mes.
Año 16, Número 01 EXPECTATIVAS ECONÓMICAS PARA MÉXICO 7 de enero de 2011
Year 16, Number 01 ECONOMIC FORECASTS FOR MEXICO January 7, 2011
Acus Consultores Alberto Calva Acus Consulting
www.AcusConsultores.com.mx 10 de/of 18 www.AcusConsulting.com
Ni Acus Consultores, S.C. ni Alberto Calva Mercado se hacen responsables por las decisiones que se tomen con base en la información y
comentarios aquí presentados, ni por la exactitud de las cifras. Neither Acus Consulting. nor Alberto Calva are responsible for any decisions
made based on the information or comments here presented, neither fo r the accuracy of the figures.
EXPECTATIVAS PARA EL CLIMA DE LOS NEGOCIOS
Expectativas para el clima de negocios que prevalecerá durante los
próximos seis meses con relación a los seis meses anteriores
Encuesta mensual de Banxico entre instituciones privadas
(Distribución de las respuestas)
Encuesta efectuada en el
mes de:
Mejorará Permanecerá igual Empeorará
Abril 2009 10% 30% 60%
Mayo 2009 16% 48% 36%
Junio 2009 33% 50% 17%
Julio 2009 41% 50% 9%
Agosto 2009 63% 28% 9%
Septiembre 2009 74% 26% 0%
Octubre 2009 57% 32% 11%
Noviembre 2009 65% 28% 7%
Diciembre 2009 67% 22% 11%
Enero 2010 71% 29% 0%
Febrero 2010 83% 17% 0%
Marzo 2010 81% 19% 0%
Abril 2010 83% 17% 0%
Mayo 2010 71% 21% 7%
Junio 2010 76% 21% 3%
Julio 2010 48% 42% 10%
Agosto 2010 17% 60% 23%
Septiembre 2010 25% 50% 25%
Octubre 2010 30% 47% 23%
Noviembre 2010 36% 61% 4%
Diciembre 2010 43% 54% 4%
***
Promedio 2008 9% 32% 59%
Promedio 2009 37% 30% 33%
Promedio 2010 ene-dic 55% 37% 8%
Año 16, Número 01 EXPECTATIVAS ECONÓMICAS PARA MÉXICO 7 de enero de 2011
Year 16, Number 01 ECONOMIC FORECASTS FOR MEXICO January 7, 2011
Acus Consultores Alberto Calva Acus Consulting
www.AcusConsultores.com.mx 11 de/of 18 www.AcusConsulting.com
Ni Acus Consultores, S.C. ni Alberto Calva Mercado se hacen responsables por las decisiones que se tomen con base en la información y
comentarios aquí presentados, ni por la exactitud de las cifras. Neither Acus Consulting. nor Alberto Calva are responsible for any decisions
made based on the information or comments here presented, neither fo r the accuracy of the figures.
EXPECTATIVAS PARA EL CLIMA DE LOS NEGOCIOS
Indicadores sobre el nivel de confianza en la
situación actual de la economía y en su futuro próximo
Encuesta mensual de Banxico entre instituciones privadas
(Distribución de las respuestas en la encuesta efectuada en el mes de:)
Prom.
2006
Prom.
2007
Prom.
2008
Prom.
2009
Prom.
2010
ene-dic
Sep.
2010
Oct.
2010
Nov.
2010
Dic.
2010
1. ¿Considera que
actualmente la economía
mexicana está mejor que
hace un año?
SI
NO
91%
9%
37%
63%
14%
86%
10%
90%
88%
12%
91%
9%
93%
7%
93%
7%
96%
4%
2. ¿Espera que la evolución
económica del país sea
favorable en los próximos
seis meses?
SI
NO
54%
46%
64%
36%
19%
81%
53%
47%
79%
21%
53%
47%
57%
43%
79%
21%
79%
21%
3. ¿Cómo espera que se
comporte el empleo formal
en el país en los próximos
seis meses?
Aumente
Permanezca igual
Disminuya
76%
19%
5%
67%
24%
9%
38%
23%
40%
13%
16%
71%
78%
19%
4%
66%
22%
12%
70%
20%
10%
75%
25%
0%
79%
21%
0%
4. ¿Cómo considera que sea
la coyuntura actual de las
empresas para invertir?
Buen momento
Mal momento
No está seguro
47%
10%
43%
44%
11%
45%
17%
39%
44%
15%
49%
37%
40%
12%
49%
22%
22%
56%
24%
17%
59%
33%
4%
63%
46%
8%
46%
Año 16, Número 01 EXPECTATIVAS ECONÓMICAS PARA MÉXICO 7 de enero de 2011
Year 16, Number 01 ECONOMIC FORECASTS FOR MEXICO January 7, 2011
Acus Consultores Alberto Calva Acus Consulting
www.AcusConsultores.com.mx 12 de/of 18 www.AcusConsulting.com
Ni Acus Consultores, S.C. ni Alberto Calva Mercado se hacen responsables por las decisiones que se tomen con base en la información y
comentarios aquí presentados, ni por la exactitud de las cifras. Neither Acus Consulting. nor Alberto Calva are responsible for any decisions
made based on the information or comments here presented, neither fo r the accuracy of the figures.
EXPECTATIVAS ECONOMICAS PARA MEXICO
Factores que en los próximos meses podrían limitar
el ritmo de la recuperación de la actividad económica
Encuesta mensual de Banxico entre instituciones privadas
(Distribución de las respuestas en la encuesta efectuada en el mes de:)
Prom
2008
Prom
2009
Prom.
2010
ene-dic
Oct
2010
Nov
2010
Dic
2010
Factores externos:
Debilidad mdo. externo y de la econ. mundial 28 25 19 21 19 21
Inestabilidad financiera internacional 16 7 8 8 17 11
Los niveles de las tasas de interés externas 1 0 0 0 1 0
Contracción de la oferta de recursos del exterior 2 2 1 2 0 0
Precio de exportación del petróleo 3 2 0 2 0 0
Inestabilidad política internacional 0 0 0 0 0 0
Subtotal factores externos 50% 35% 29% 34% 37% 32%
Factores domésticos:
Problemas de inseguridad pública 5 6 15 17 19 21
Ausencia de reformas estructurales 16 18 22 21 20 19
Debilidad del mercado interno 3 12 14 12 10 12
Incertidumbre sobre situación económica interna 3 7 4 6 3 4
La política fiscal que se está instrumentando 2 6 6 3 5 2
Disponibilidad de financiamiento interno 1 2 3 2 2 2
Incertidumbre cambiaria --- 3 1 2 0 2
Elevado costo de financiamiento interno 1 2 1 1 1 1
La política monetaria que se está aplicando 3 1 1 1 1 1
Aumento en precios insumos y materias primas 4 0 0 0 1 1
Incertidumbre política interna 1 1 1 1 0 1
Presiones inflacionarias en el país 9 3 2 0 0 0
Aumento en los costos salariales 1 0 0 0 0 0
Lenta recuperación de los salarios reales 1 0 0 0 0 0
Escasez de mano de obra calificada 0 0 0 0 0 0
Otros 1 2 0 0 0 0
Subtotal factores domésticos 51% 64% 70% 66% 62% 66%
Total 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
Nota: Las sumas pueden no ser exactas por errores en el redondeo de los promedios
Año 16, Número 01 EXPECTATIVAS ECONÓMICAS PARA MÉXICO 7 de enero de 2011
Year 16, Number 01 ECONOMIC FORECASTS FOR MEXICO January 7, 2011
Acus Consultores Alberto Calva Acus Consulting
www.AcusConsultores.com.mx 13 de/of 18 www.AcusConsulting.com
Ni Acus Consultores, S.C. ni Alberto Calva Mercado se hacen responsables por las decisiones que se tomen con base en la información y
comentarios aquí presentados, ni por la exactitud de las cifras. Neither Acus Consulting. nor Alberto Calva are responsible for any decisions
made based on the information or comments here presented, neither fo r the accuracy of the figures.
ECONOMIC FORECASTS FOR MEXICO
Banxico’s monthly survey among private firms
Survey’s period:
December 7 to 15, 2010
This month’s
average
Last month’s
average
Average two
months ago
Inflation (2011)
(2012)
3.82%
3.78%
3.77%
3.75%
3.73%
3.78%
Exchange rate (close 2011)
(close 2012)
12.53
12.75
12.55
N/A
12.69
N/A
Cetes 28 days (close 2011)
(close 2012)
4.70%
5.82%
4.73%
N/A
5.06%
N/A
TIIE (interbank rate) (close 2011)
(close 2012)
4.77%
5.82%
4.75%
N/A
5.01%
N/A
GDP Mexico (growth rate) (2010)
(2011)
(2012)
5.08%
3.59%
4.04%
5.03%
3.46%
4.01%
4.75%
3.52%
4.06%
GDP U.S.A. (growth rate) (2010)
(2011)
2.8%
2.7%
2.7%
2.5%
2.7%
2.5%
Wages annual increase (expected this month)
(expected next month)
4.47%
4.49%
4.52%
4.37%
4.53%
3.62%
Trade balance deficit (2010)
(millions of USD) (2011)
5,285
9,980
5,213
10,964
5,750
11,606
Current account deficit (2010)
(millions of USD) (2011)
6,839
12,751
7,276
12,427
7,314
13,021
Foreign direct investment flow (2010)
(millions of USD) (2011)
18,391
19,808
18,711
19,478
18,857
19,913
Average oil price for the Mexican export mix
(USD per barrel) average year 2011
average first quarter 2011
average second quarter 2011
74.14
74.42
74.24
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Año 16, Número 01 EXPECTATIVAS ECONÓMICAS PARA MÉXICO 7 de enero de 2011
Year 16, Number 01 ECONOMIC FORECASTS FOR MEXICO January 7, 2011
Acus Consultores Alberto Calva Acus Consulting
www.AcusConsultores.com.mx 14 de/of 18 www.AcusConsulting.com
Ni Acus Consultores, S.C. ni Alberto Calva Mercado se hacen responsables por las decisiones que se tomen con base en la información y
comentarios aquí presentados, ni por la exactitud de las cifras. Neither Acus Consulting. nor Alberto Calva are responsible for any decisions
made based on the information or comments here presented, neither fo r the accuracy of the figures.
ECONOMIC FORECASTS FOR MEXICO
Future markets
(as of December 31, 2010)
June 2011 Dec. 2011 June 2012 Dec. 2012 Dec. 2013
MXN-USD Chicago 12.54 12.77 13.03 N/A N/A
MXN-USD MexDer 12.52 12.79 13.07 13.34 13.84
MXN-EUR MexDer 16.79 17.10 N/A N/A N/A
USD-EUR Chicago 1.332 1.335 1.334 N/A N/A
USD-CAD Chicago 1.002 0.996 0.991 N/A N/A
TIIE 28 days MexDer 4.98% 5.52% 5.78% 6.26% 7.33%
Cetes 91 days MexDer 4.78% 5.00% 5.61% 6.81% 7.22%
Mexican Stock
Exchange MexDer
(index)
39,045 N/A N/A N/A N/A
Mexican Stock
Exchange MexDer
(% increase)
1.28%
versus
Dec.2010
N/A N/A N/A N/A
Chicago: Chicago Mercantile Exchange
MexDer: Mercado Mexicano de Derivados (Mexican Derivatives Market),
MXN: Mexican Peso
USD: US Dollar
CAD: Canadian Dollar
EUR: Euro
TIIE: Mexican interbank rate
Cetes: Mexican treasury bills
Año 16, Número 01 EXPECTATIVAS ECONÓMICAS PARA MÉXICO 7 de enero de 2011
Year 16, Number 01 ECONOMIC FORECASTS FOR MEXICO January 7, 2011
Acus Consultores Alberto Calva Acus Consulting
www.AcusConsultores.com.mx 15 de/of 18 www.AcusConsulting.com
Ni Acus Consultores, S.C. ni Alberto Calva Mercado se hacen responsables por las decisiones que se tomen con base en la información y
comentarios aquí presentados, ni por la exactitud de las cifras. Neither Acus Consulting. nor Alberto Calva are responsible for any decisions
made based on the information or comments here presented, neither fo r the accuracy of the figures.
ECONOMIC FORECASTS FOR MEXICO
Banxico’s monthly survey among private firms
Forecasts change in the last months
Survey
made in the
month of:
Inflation
2010
Inflation
2011
Exchange
rate
close of
2009
Exchange
rate
close of
2010
Cetes 28
days
close of
2010
GDP
growth rate
2009
GDP
growth rate
2010
Jan. 2009 3.74% 3.52% 13.50 13.61 6.69% -1.16% 2.08%
Feb. 2009 3.76% 3.57% 14.10 14.01 6.57% -1.92% 2.00%
Mar. 2009 3.78% 3.59% 14.25 13.99 6.10% -3.32% 1.62%
Apr. 2009 3.80% 3.68% 13.65 13.64 5.88% -4.02% 1.68%
May 2009 3.82% 3.70% 13.45 13.35 5.61% -5.82% 2.09%
June 2009 3.86% 3.70% 13.47 13.47 5.30% -6.31% 2.05%
July 2009 3.90% 3.68% 13.48 13.42 5.24% -6.93% 2.54%
Aug. 2009 4.01% 3.75% 13.22 13.33 5.38% -7.19% 2.85%
Sep. 2009 4.28% 3.83% 13.37 13.42 5.43% -7.18% 2.82%
Oct. 2009 4.54% 3.86% 13.31 13.29 5.61% -7.15% 2.94%
Nov. 2009 4.86% 4.04% 13.16 13.22 5.68% -7.02% 2.93%
Dec. 2009 5.04% 3.98% N/A 13.04 5.52% -7.03% 3.12%
Jan. 2010 4.93% 3.91% N/A 12.97 5.46% -6.93% 3.28%
Feb. 2010 5.21% 3.89% N/A 13.04 5.29% N/A 3.87%
Mar. 2010 5.28% 3.97% N/A 12.70 5.20% N/A 4.08%
Apr. 2010 5.19% 3.98% N/A 12.45 5.00% N/A 4.18%
May 2010 4.94% 3.95% N/A 12.48 4.78% N/A 4.31%
June 2010 4.66% 3.92% N/A 12.50 4.74% N/A 4.37%
July 2010 4.59% 3.90% N/A 12.57 4.61% N/A 4.52%
Aug. 2010 4.43% 3.82% N/A 12.66 4.58% N/A 4.62%
Sep. 2010 4.33% 3.84% N/A 12.66 4.56% N/A 4.62%
Oct. 2010 4.30% 3.73% N/A 12.53 4.41% N/A 4.75%
Nov. 2010 4.38% 3.77% N/A 12.37 4.30% N/A 5.03%
Dec. 2010 4.40% 3.82% N/A N/A N/A N/A 5.08%
Actual
figure
N/A N/A 13.08 12.36 4.30% -6.5% N/A
Note: “N/A” means there was no survey published that month.
Año 16, Número 01 EXPECTATIVAS ECONÓMICAS PARA MÉXICO 7 de enero de 2011
Year 16, Number 01 ECONOMIC FORECASTS FOR MEXICO January 7, 2011
Acus Consultores Alberto Calva Acus Consulting
www.AcusConsultores.com.mx 16 de/of 18 www.AcusConsulting.com
Ni Acus Consultores, S.C. ni Alberto Calva Mercado se hacen responsables por las decisiones que se tomen con base en la información y
comentarios aquí presentados, ni por la exactitud de las cifras. Neither Acus Consulting. nor Alberto Calva are responsible for any decisions
made based on the information or comments here presented, neither fo r the accuracy of the figures.
FORECASTS FOR THE BUSINESS CLIMATE
Forecasts for the business climate that is expected for the next six
months compared with the six previous last months
Banxico’s monthly survey among private firms
(Answers distribution)
Survey made in
the month of:
Situation will improve
Situation will remain
more or less the same
Situation will be worse
April 2009 10% 30% 60%
May 2009 16% 48% 36%
June 2009 33% 50% 17%
July 2009 41% 50% 9%
August 2009 63% 28% 9%
September 2009 74% 26% 0%
October 2009 57% 32% 11%
November 2009 65% 28% 7%
December 2009 67% 22% 11%
January 2010 71% 29% 0%
February 2010 83% 17% 0%
March 2010 81% 19% 0%
April 2010 83% 17% 0%
May 2010 71% 21% 7%
June 2010 76% 21% 3%
July 2010 48% 42% 10%
August 2010 17% 60% 23%
September 2010 25% 50% 25%
October 2010 30% 47% 23%
November 2010 36% 61% 4%
December 2010 43% 54% 4%
***
Average 2008 9% 32% 59%
Average 2009 37% 30% 33%
Average 2010 Jan-Dec 55% 37% 8%
Año 16, Número 01 EXPECTATIVAS ECONÓMICAS PARA MÉXICO 7 de enero de 2011
Year 16, Number 01 ECONOMIC FORECASTS FOR MEXICO January 7, 2011
Acus Consultores Alberto Calva Acus Consulting
www.AcusConsultores.com.mx 17 de/of 18 www.AcusConsulting.com
Ni Acus Consultores, S.C. ni Alberto Calva Mercado se hacen responsables por las decisiones que se tomen con base en la información y
comentarios aquí presentados, ni por la exactitud de las cifras. Neither Acus Consulting. nor Alberto Calva are responsible for any decisions
made based on the information or comments here presented, neither fo r the accuracy of the figures.
FORECASTS FOR THE BUSINESS CLIMATE
Confidence level indicators over the
economy’s present situation and close future
Banxico monthly survey among private firms
(Answers distribution for the survey made in the month of:)
Avge
2006
Avge
2007
Avge
2008
Avge.
2009
Avge.
2010
Jan-
Dec
Sep.
2010
Oct.
2010
Nov.
2010
Dec.
2010
1. Do you consider that the
Mexican economy is today
better than a year ago?
YES
NO
91%
9%
37%
63%
14%
86%
10%
90%
88%
12%
91%
9%
93%
7%
93%
7%
96%
4%
2. Do you expect that the
evolution for the Mexican
economy will be favorable in
the next six months?
YES
NO
54%
46%
64%
36%
19%
81%
53%
47%
79%
21%
53%
47%
57%
43%
79%
21%
79%
21%
3. How do you expect is
going to be the
employment’s behavior in
the next six months?
It will increase
Will remain the same
It will decrease
76%
19%
5%
67%
24%
9%
38%
23%
40%
13%
16%
71%
78%
19%
4%
66%
22%
12%
70%
20%
10%
75%
25%
0%
79%
21%
0%
4. How do you consider the
present time for businesses
to invest?
A good moment
A bad moment
Not sure
47%
10%
43%
44%
11%
45%
17%
39%
44%
15%
49%
37%
40%
12%
49%
22%
22%
56%
24%
17%
59%
33%
4%
63%
46%
8%
46%
Año 16, Número 01 EXPECTATIVAS ECONÓMICAS PARA MÉXICO 7 de enero de 2011
Year 16, Number 01 ECONOMIC FORECASTS FOR MEXICO January 7, 2011
Acus Consultores Alberto Calva Acus Consulting
www.AcusConsultores.com.mx 18 de/of 18 www.AcusConsulting.com
Ni Acus Consultores, S.C. ni Alberto Calva Mercado se hacen responsables por las decisiones que se tomen con base en la información y
comentarios aquí presentados, ni por la exactitud de las cifras. Neither Acus Consulting. nor Alberto Calva are responsible for any decisions
made based on the information or comments here presented, neither fo r the accuracy of the figures.
ECONOMIC FORECASTS FOR MEXICO
Factors that could limit the
Economic activity recovery in the next months
Banxico’s monthly survey among private firms
(Answers distribution for the survey made in the month of:)
Avge
2008
Avge.
2009
Avge.
2010
Jan-
Dec
Oct.
2010
Nov.
2010
Dec.
2010
External factors:
Foreign markets and world economy weakness 28 25 19 21 19 21
International financial instability 16 7 8 8 17 11
Foreign interest rate levels 1 0 0 0 1 0
Contraction of foreign resources supply 2 2 1 2 0 0
Export oil price 3 2 0 2 0 0
International political instability 0 0 0 0 0 0
Subtotal external factors 50% 35% 29% 34% 37% 32%
Domestic factors:
Public insecurity problems 5 6 15 17 19 21
Lack of structural reforms 16 18 22 21 20 19
Domestic market weakness 3 12 14 12 10 12
Uncertainty on domestic economic situation 3 7 4 6 3 4
The tax policy being instrumented 2 6 6 3 5 2
Availability of domestic credit 1 2 3 2 2 2
Exchange rate uncertainty --- 3 1 2 0 2
High cost of domestic credit 1 2 1 1 1 1
The monetary policy in use 3 1 1 1 1 1
Increase in prices of raw materials and supplies 4 0 0 0 1 1
Domestic political uncertainty 1 1 1 1 0 1
Domestic inflation pressure 9 3 2 0 0 0
Increase in the cost of wages 1 0 0 0 0 0
Real wages low recovery 1 0 0 0 0 0
Scarcity of qualified labor 0 0 0 0 0 0
Others 1 2 0 0 0 0
Subtotal domestic factors 51% 64% 70% 66% 62% 66%
Total 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
Totals may not add exactly 100% because of the average rounding.
Year 16, Number 01 ECONOMIC FORECASTS FOR MEXICO January 7, 2011
Acus Consultores Alberto Calva Acus Consulting
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Ni Acus Consultores, S.C. ni Alberto Calva Mercado se hacen responsables por las decisiones que se tomen con base en la información y
comentarios aquí presentados, ni por la exactitud de las cifras. Neither Acus Consulting. nor Alberto Calva are responsible for any decisions
made based on the information or comments here presented, neither fo r the accuracy of the figures.
EXPECTATIVAS
ECONÓMICAS
PARA
MÉXICO
ECONOMIC
FORECASTS
FOR
MEXICO
7 de enero de 2011 January 7, 2011
Contenido
Comentarios en español e inglés
(página 2 a 6)
Tablas de datos en español
(página 7 a 12)
Tablas de datos en inglés
(página 13 a 18)
Contents
Comments in Spanish and English
(pages 2 to 6)
Tables of figures in Spanish
(pages 7 a 12)
Tables of figures in English
(pages 13 to 18)
Esta publicación es elaborada por Acus Consultores y
Alberto Calva.
Este documento puede consultarse en www.acus.com.mx
Su objetivo de este documento es apoyar al ejecutivo en su
proceso de toma de decisiones a través de presentar de
forma concisa y sencilla la información sobre las
cambiantes expectativas económicas que hay disponibles
para México.
Ni Acus Consultores ni Alberto Calva se hacen
responsables por las decisiones que se tomen con base en
la información y comentarios aquí presentados, ni por la
exactitud de las cifras.
This document is prepared by Acus Consulting and
Alberto Calva.
This document is available at www.AcusConsulting.com
The purpose of this document is to support the executive’s
decision making process by presenting in a concise and
simple way the available information regarding the
changing economic forecasts for Mexico.
Neither Acus Consulting nor Alberto Calva are responsible
for any decisions made based on the information or
comments here presented, neither for the accuracy of the
figures.
Año 16, Número 01 EXPECTATIVAS ECONÓMICAS PARA MÉXICO 7 de enero de 2011
Year 16, Number 01 ECONOMIC FORECASTS FOR MEXICO January 7, 2011
Acus Consultores Alberto Calva Acus Consulting
www.AcusConsultores.com.mx 2 de/of 18 www.AcusConsulting.com
Ni Acus Consultores, S.C. ni Alberto Calva Mercado se hacen responsables por las decisiones que se tomen con base en la información y
comentarios aquí presentados, ni por la exactitud de las cifras. Neither Acus Consulting. nor Alberto Calva are responsible for any decisions
made based on the information or comments here presented, neither fo r the accuracy of the figures.
7 de enero de 2011
Estos son los comentarios a las tablas adjuntas de
nuestra síntesis correspondiente al mes de enero de
2011 sobre “Expectativas Económicas para
México”. Acus Consultores ha estado preparando
este informe por casi dieciseis años. Esta síntesis
mensual se distribuye en forma gratuita para nuestros
clientes y amigos. Está llegando a cerca de quince
mil personas hoy en día.
La información presentada corresponde a la
encuesta mensual que elabora el Banco de México
entre 29 instituciones privadas. La encuesta se
realizó del 7 al 15 de diciembre de 2010.
a) Estimaciones para 2010 a 2012 (página 7). La
estimación de inflación para el año 2011 es de
3.82% (3.77% el mes pasado) y para el año 2012
es de 3.78% (3.75% el mes pasado). La estimación
para el tipo de cambio es de 12.53 para el cierre de
2011 (12.55 el mes pasado) y 12.75 para el cierre
de 2012.
La estimación para la tasa de Cetes para el cierre de
2011 es de 4.70% (4.73% el mes pasado) y 5.82%
para el cierre de 2012. Por último, la tasa de
crecimiento del producto interno bruto (PIB)
estimada para el año 2010 es de 5.08% (5.03% el
mes pasado), 3.59% para 2011 (3.46% el mes
pasado) y 4.04% para 2012 (4.01% el mes
pasado).
La tasa estimada para el crecimiento del PIB de los
Estados Unidos para el año de 2010 es 2.8% (2.7%
el mes pasado) y 2.7% para 2011 (2.5% el mes
pasado).
January 7, 2011
These are the comments to the charts of the report
for January 2011 titled “Economic Forecasts for
Mexico”. Acus Consulting has been preparing this
report for almost sixteen years. We send this report
free of any charge every month to clients and friends.
We are reaching today close to fifteen thousand
persons.
The information presented is based on Banco de
Mexico’s (Mexico’s central bank) monthly survey
amongst 29 private firms. The survey took place
from December 7 to 15, 2010.
a) Forecasts for 2010 to 2012 (page 13). The
inflation rate forecasted for this year 2011 is 3.82%
(3.77% last month) and 3.78% for year 2012
(3.75% last month). Concerning the exchange rate,
the forecast is 12.53 for year end 2011 (12.55 last
month) and 12.75 for year end 2012.
The forecast for Cetes (the Mexican government
treasury bill) interest rate for the close of 2011 is
4.70% (4.73% last month) and 5.82% for the close
of 2012. At last, the expected growth rate for the
gross domestic product (GDP) for the year 2010 is
5.08% (5.03% last month), 3.59% for 2011 (3.46%
last month) and 4.04% for 2012 (4.01% last
month).
The forecasted US GDP growth rate for year 2010
is 2.8% (2.7% last month) and 2.7% for 2011
(2.5% last month).
Año 16, Número 01 EXPECTATIVAS ECONÓMICAS PARA MÉXICO 7 de enero de 2011
Year 16, Number 01 ECONOMIC FORECASTS FOR MEXICO January 7, 2011
Acus Consultores Alberto Calva Acus Consulting
www.AcusConsultores.com.mx 3 de/of 18 www.AcusConsulting.com
Ni Acus Consultores, S.C. ni Alberto Calva Mercado se hacen responsables por las decisiones que se tomen con base en la información y
comentarios aquí presentados, ni por la exactitud de las cifras. Neither Acus Consulting. nor Alberto Calva are responsible for any decisions
made based on the information or comments here presented, neither fo r the accuracy of the figures.
En esta misma página 7 se presenta información
sobre las expectativas para la balanza comercial, el
saldo en cuenta corriente, la inversión extranjera
directa y el precio promedio para mezcla de
exportación del petróleo mexicano. En este último
caso, el precio promedio para 2011 de la mezcla de
exportación del petróleo mexicano se estima en
74.14 dólares por barril.
b) Mercados de futuros (página 8). En esta página
se puede apreciar información acerca de los
mercados de futuros. Para la paridad peso-dólar se
opera un tipo de cambio en promedio de 12.78 para
diciembre de 2011 (13.21 hace tres meses y 14.36
hace un año), 13.34 para diciembre de 2012 (13.80
hace tres meses y 14.98 hace un año) y 13.84 para
diciembre de 2013 (14.53 hace tres meses).
En esta página también se puede ver información
sobre los futuros del MXN-EUR, del USD-EUR,
del USD-CAD, así como de las tasas para la TIIE,
de los Cetes y la Bolsa de Valores en México.
c) Cambio en las expectativas (página 9). Los
cambios en las expectativas con base en las
encuestas que se realizan cada mes implican que el
entorno es tan cambiante que no podemos basar
nuestra planeación en un escenario inicial fijo y
constante. Es importante mantener un monitoreo
constante sobre el cambio de tendencia de las
distintas variables. La planeación es un proceso
continuo y no un evento aislado que se da solo al
inicio o final del año. En esta página se puede ver la
evolución de los números en los últimos meses.
Por ejemplo, el estimado de inflación para 2010 era
In this same page 13 you can see information
regarding the forecasts for the commercial balance,
the current account, the foreign direct investment and
the average price for the Mexican petroleum’s
exportation mix. Regarding the average price in
2011 for the Mexican petroleum’s exportation mix
the forecast is 74.14 USD per barrel.
b) Future markets (page 14). In this page you can
see information regarding future markets for the
exchange rate. For the MXN-USD future market
the exchange rate has had an average quote at 12.78
for December 2011 (13.21 three months ago and
14.36 a year ago), 13.34 for December 2012
(13.80 three months ago and 14.98 a year ago) and
13.84 for December 2013 (14.53 three months
ago).
In this page you can also see information regarding
the future rate for the MXN-EUR the USD-EUR,
the USD-CAD, as well as the rates for the Mexican
TIIE, Cetes and the Mexican Stock Exchange.
c) Trends in the forecasts (page 15). The changes in
the forecasted figures based on the monthly surveys
mean that the environment is constantly changing and
that we cannot base our planning process on a
constant scenario. It is necessary to permanently
monitor the changing trends of the different
economic variables. Planning is a non-stop process
and not a one-time event at the beginning or end of
each year. In this page we can the change in the
figures for the last months.
For example, the forecast for the inflation rate for
Año 16, Número 01 EXPECTATIVAS ECONÓMICAS PARA MÉXICO 7 de enero de 2011
Year 16, Number 01 ECONOMIC FORECASTS FOR MEXICO January 7, 2011
Acus Consultores Alberto Calva Acus Consulting
www.AcusConsultores.com.mx 4 de/of 18 www.AcusConsulting.com
Ni Acus Consultores, S.C. ni Alberto Calva Mercado se hacen responsables por las decisiones que se tomen con base en la información y
comentarios aquí presentados, ni por la exactitud de las cifras. Neither Acus Consulting. nor Alberto Calva are responsible for any decisions
made based on the information or comments here presented, neither fo r the accuracy of the figures.
3.96% en diciembe de 2008 y la inflación real
observada para 2010 fue de 4.40%. El estimado de
tipo de cambio para el cierre de 2010 llego a ser
14.01 en febrero de 2009 y el cierre real en
diciembre de 2010 fue 12.36. El estimado de
crecimiento del PIB para 2009 era 3.31% en mayo
de 2008, -0.11% en diciembre de 2008 y el dato
real fue -6.1%. Para 2010 el crecimiento esperado
del PIB llegó a ser 1.62% en marzo de 2009 y
ahora, en el mes de diciembre de 2010 es 5.08%.
d) Clima de negocios (página 10). En este mes, el
43% (36% hace un mes y 67% hace un año) opina
que mejorará la situación en los próximos seis
meses. El 54% (61% hace un mes y 22% hace un
año) opina que permanecerá igual. El 4% (4% hace
un mes y 11% hace un año) de los encuestados
opina que la situación en los próximos seis meses
con respecto a los seis meses anteriores empeorará.
El momento más pesimista se vio en noviembre y
diciembre de 2008 cuando el 87% opinaba que la
situación empeoraría. Por el contrario, el periodo
más optimista se dio de febrero a abril de 2010,
siendo más conservador el pronóstico del clima de
negocios en las encuestas de agosto a octubre.
e) Indicadores de confianza (página 11). El
escenario sobre indicadores de confianza actuales y
futuros de la situación económica de México está
como sigue. El 96% opina que la economía
mexicana esta mejor que hace un año (93% el mes
pasado y 91% hace tres meses). El 79% opina que
la evolución económica del país para los siguientes
seis meses será favorable (79% el mes pasado y
53% hace tres meses). El 79% opina que habrá un
aumento en el empleo formal (75% el mes pasado y
2010 was 3.96% in December 2008 the real figure
for 2010 was 4.40%. The forecast for the exchange
rate for the close of 2010 was 14.01 in February
2009 and the real closing figure for December 2010
was 12.36. The forecasted growth rate for the GDP
for 2009 was 3.31% in May 2008, -0.11% in
December 2008 and the actual figure for the year
2009 was -6.1%. For 2010 the forecast for the
GDP growth rate went to a minimum of 1.62% in
March 2009 and now, in December 2010, the
forecast is 5.08%.
d) Business climate (page 16). In this month’s
survey, 43% (36% a month ago and 67% a year
ago) believe that the situation over the next six
months will be better. Meanwhile, 54% (61% a
month ago and 22% a year ago) believe it will
remain the same. This month 4% (4% a month ago
and 11% a year ago) believe that the situation in the
next six months compared with that in the previous
six months will be worse. The most pessimistic
moment was in November and December 2008
when 87% believed that the situation would be
worse. On the other side, the most optimistic period
was in the period February to April 2010. In the
surveys of August to October the forecast for the
business climate is less optimistic.
e) Confidence levels (page 17). The answers
regarding the levels of trust on the present and future
economic situation in Mexico are as follows. 96%
expressed that the Mexican economy is better than a
year ago (93% last month and 91% three months
ago) believe this. 79% expressed that the Mexican
economic evolution will be favorable in the next six
months (79% last month and 53% three months
ago). 79% expressed that there will be an increase
on the employment (75% last month and 66% three
Año 16, Número 01 EXPECTATIVAS ECONÓMICAS PARA MÉXICO 7 de enero de 2011
Year 16, Number 01 ECONOMIC FORECASTS FOR MEXICO January 7, 2011
Acus Consultores Alberto Calva Acus Consulting
www.AcusConsultores.com.mx 5 de/of 18 www.AcusConsulting.com
Ni Acus Consultores, S.C. ni Alberto Calva Mercado se hacen responsables por las decisiones que se tomen con base en la información y
comentarios aquí presentados, ni por la exactitud de las cifras. Neither Acus Consulting. nor Alberto Calva are responsible for any decisions
made based on the information or comments here presented, neither fo r the accuracy of the figures.
66% tres meses). Por último, el 46% opina que es
un buen momento para invertir (33% el mes pasado
y 22% hace tres meses).
f) Factores que pueden limitar la recuperación
económica (página 12). Por último se muestran los
factores que se estima podrían limitar la
recuperación económica en México. Los factores
externos han tenido distinto peso en los últimos
meses. En este mes de diciembre de 2010, se
considera que el 32% son factores externos. Es
decir, los factores domésticos representan el 68%.
Este mes los factores más importantes son la
debilidad mercado externo y de la economía mundial
(ext) (21%, 19% el mes pasado), problemas de
inseguridad pública (dom) (21%, 19% el mes
pasado), la ausencia de reformas estructurales
(dom) (19%, 20% el mes pasado), debilidad del
mercado interno (dom) (12%, 10% el mes pasado),
la inestabilidad financiera internacional (ext) (11%,
17% el mes pasado) y la incertidumbre en la
situación económica interna (dom) (4%, 3% el mes
pasado). Estos seis primeros factores, cuatro
domésticos y dos externos, representan el 88% del
total de factores que podrían limitar el ritmo de
recuperación de la actividad económica.
Esperamos que esta información les sea útil.
Nosotros, en Acus Consultores, continuamos con
nuestro trabajo de asesoría en finanzas corporativas
y estrategia. Nuestra área de educación continua
desarrolla e imparte seminarios ejecutivos sobre
estas mismas áreas de especialidad.
Saludos.
months ago). At last, 46% expressed that it is a
good time for investment (33% last month and 22%
three months ago).
f) Factors that could limit the economic recovery
(page 18). At last, the factors that are perceived that
could limit the Mexican economic recovery are here
presented. The external factors have had different
weight in the last months. This month of December
2010 the external factors represent 32% of the total.
Therefore, domestic factors represent 68% of the
weight this month.
This month the most important factors are foreign
markets and world economy weakness (ext) (21%,
19% last month), public insecurity problems (dom)
(21%, 19% last month), the lack of structural
reforms (dom) (19%, 20% last month), domestic
market weakness (dom) (12%, 10% last month), the
international financial instability (ext) (11%, 17% last
month), and the uncertainty on domestic economic
situation (dom) (4%, 3% last month). These first six
factors, four of them domestic and two external,
represent a weight of 88% of all the factors that
could limit the recovery rate of the economic activity.
We hope this information can be useful for you. We,
at Acus Consulting, keep working in our consulting
practice in corporate finance and strategy. We also
continue offering our continuous education classes
and executive seminars in these same fields of
expertise.
Regards.
Año 16, Número 01 EXPECTATIVAS ECONÓMICAS PARA MÉXICO 7 de enero de 2011
Year 16, Number 01 ECONOMIC FORECASTS FOR MEXICO January 7, 2011
Acus Consultores Alberto Calva Acus Consulting
www.AcusConsultores.com.mx 6 de/of 18 www.AcusConsulting.com
Ni Acus Consultores, S.C. ni Alberto Calva Mercado se hacen responsables por las decisiones que se tomen con base en la información y
comentarios aquí presentados, ni por la exactitud de las cifras. Neither Acus Consulting. nor Alberto Calva are responsible for any decisions
made based on the information or comments here presented, neither fo r the accuracy of the figures.
Alberto Calva
Acus Consultores
www.AcusConsultores.com.mx
acalva@acus.com.mx
Tel. México: (55)8421-8401
(55)4624-0238
Tel. Canadá: 416-824-1924
647-724-0625
Tel. EE.UU.: 646-233-3029
Nota: Si desea recibir esta información por correo
electrónico favor de enviarnos sus datos (nombre, empresa,
puesto, ciudad y país, y dirección electrónica).
En Acus Consultores respetamos sus datos personales. No
vendemos ni rentamos nuestra base de datos, ni damos
dato alguno a ningún individuo o empresa. Nuestra base de
datos solo se utiliza para enviar informes y correos
generados por nuestra firma.
Responsabilidad: No nos hacemos responsables por la
exactitud de las cifras presentadas, ni por las decisiones
que se tomen con base en nuestros comentarios o la
información adjunta.
Reproducción y reenvío de este reporte: Si desea reenviar
este reporte o imprimirlo y reproducirlo, esto está permitido
por nosotros, siempre y cuando el reenvío o reproducción
sea en forma total del documento, se mantenga el nombre y
crédito de los autores, y no se obtenga ningún lucro con
esto.
Alberto Calva
Acus Consulting
www.AcusConsulting.com
acalva@acusconsulting.com
Tel. Canada: 416-824-1924
647-724-0625
Tel. Mexico: (55)8421-841
(55)4624-0238
Tel. USA.: 646-233-3029
Note: If you want to receive this information by e-mail,
please send us your information (name, company, position,
city and country, and email address).
In Acus Consulting we respect your privacy. We do not
sell or rent our data base, neither we give any data to any
person or company. Our data base is used only to send
reports and emails prepared by our firm.
Responsibility: We are not responsible for the accuracy of
the figures here presented, neither for the decisions taken
based on this information or based on our comments.
Reproduction and resending of this report: If you want to
resend this report or if you want to print and copy it, this is
permitted by us, as far as the resend or the printing and
copying is always made of the whole report, as far as the
name and credit for the authors is maintained, and as far as
no profit is made from this.
Año 16, Número 01 EXPECTATIVAS ECONÓMICAS PARA MÉXICO 7 de enero de 2011
Year 16, Number 01 ECONOMIC FORECASTS FOR MEXICO January 7, 2011
Acus Consultores Alberto Calva Acus Consulting
www.AcusConsultores.com.mx 7 de/of 18 www.AcusConsulting.com
Ni Acus Consultores, S.C. ni Alberto Calva Mercado se hacen responsables por las decisiones que se tomen con base en la información y
comentarios aquí presentados, ni por la exactitud de las cifras. Neither Acus Consulting. nor Alberto Calva are responsible for any decisions
made based on the information or comments here presented, neither fo r the accuracy of the figures.
EXPECTATIVAS ECONOMICAS PARA MEXICO
Encuesta mensual de Banxico entre instituciones privadas
Periodo de la encuesta:
7 al 15 de diciembre de 2010
Promedio
este mes
Promedio
mes anterior
Promedio hace
dos meses
Inflación (2011)
(2012)
3.82%
3.78%
3.77%
3.75%
3.73%
3.78%
Tipo de cambio (cierre 2011)
(cierre 2012)
12.53
12.75
12.55
N/D
12.69
N/D
Cetes 28 días (cierre 2011)
(cierre 2012)
4.70%
5.82%
4.73%
N/D
5.06%
N/D
TIIE (tasa interbancaria) (cierre 2011)
(cierre 2012)
4.77%
5.82%
4.75%
N/D
5.01%
N/D
PIB México (tasa de crecimiento) (2010)
(2011)
(2012)
5.08%
3.59%
4.04%
5.03%
3.46%
4.01%
4.75%
3.52%
4.06%
PIB EE.UU. (tasa de crecimiento) (2010)
(2011)
2.8%
2.7%
2.7%
2.5%
2.7%
2.5%
Incremento salarial anual (esperado este mes)
(para próximo mes)
4.47%
4.49%
4.52%
4.37%
4.53%
3.62%
Déficit balanza comercial (2010)
(millones de USD) (2011)
5,285
9,980
5,213
10,964
5,750
11,606
Déficit cuenta corriente (2010)
(millones de USD) (2011)
6,839
12,751
7,276
12,427
7,314
13,021
Flujo de inversión extranjera directa (2010)
(millones de USD) (2011)
18,391
19,808
18,711
19,478
18,857
19,913
Precio promedio petróleo mezcla de exportación
(USD por barril) promedio año 2011
promedio primer trimestre 2011
promedio segundo trimestre 2011
74.14
74.42
74.24
N/D
N/D
N/D
N/D
N/D
N/D
Año 16, Número 01 EXPECTATIVAS ECONÓMICAS PARA MÉXICO 7 de enero de 2011
Year 16, Number 01 ECONOMIC FORECASTS FOR MEXICO January 7, 2011
Acus Consultores Alberto Calva Acus Consulting
www.AcusConsultores.com.mx 8 de/of 18 www.AcusConsulting.com
Ni Acus Consultores, S.C. ni Alberto Calva Mercado se hacen responsables por las decisiones que se tomen con base en la información y
comentarios aquí presentados, ni por la exactitud de las cifras. Neither Acus Consulting. nor Alberto Calva are responsible for any decisions
made based on the information or comments here presented, neither fo r the accuracy of the figures.
EXPECTATIVAS ECONOMICAS PARA MEXICO
Mercados de futuros
(al 31 de diciembre de 2010)
Jun. 2011 Dic. 2011 Jun. 2012 Dic. 2012 Dic. 2013
MXN-USD Chicago 12.54 12.77 13.03 N/D N/D
MXN-USD MexDer 12.52 12.79 13.07 13.34 13.84
MXN-EUR MexDer 16.79 17.10 N/D N/D N/D
USD-EUR Chicago 1.332 1.335 1.334 N/D N/D
USD-CAD Chicago 1.002 0.996 0.991 N/D N/D
TIIE 28 días MexDer 4.98% 5.52% 5.78% 6.26% 7.33%
Cetes 91 días MexDer 4.78% 5.00% 5.61% 6.81% 7.22%
Bolsa Mexicana de
Valores MexDer (índice
en puntos)
39,045 N/D N/D N/D N/D
Bolsa Mexicana de
Valores MexDer
(incremento %)
1.28%
versus
dic.2010
N/D N/D N/D N/D
Chicago: Chicago Mercantile Exchange
MexDer: Mercado Mexicano de Derivados,
Peso: Peso mexicano
USD: Dólar de los EE.UU.
CAD: Dólar canadiense
EUR: Euro
TIIE: Tasa de interés interbancaria de equilibrio en México
Cetes: Certificados de la Tesorería de la Federación en México
IPC de la BMV: Indice de Precios y Cotizaciones de la Bolsa Mexicana de Valores
Año 16, Número 01 EXPECTATIVAS ECONÓMICAS PARA MÉXICO 7 de enero de 2011
Year 16, Number 01 ECONOMIC FORECASTS FOR MEXICO January 7, 2011
Acus Consultores Alberto Calva Acus Consulting
www.AcusConsultores.com.mx 9 de/of 18 www.AcusConsulting.com
Ni Acus Consultores, S.C. ni Alberto Calva Mercado se hacen responsables por las decisiones que se tomen con base en la información y
comentarios aquí presentados, ni por la exactitud de las cifras. Neither Acus Consulting. nor Alberto Calva are responsible for any decisions
made based on the information or comments here presented, neither fo r the accuracy of the figures.
EXPECTATIVAS ECONOMICAS PARA MEXICO
Evolución en los resultados de las encuestas de Banco de México
entre instituciones privadas: cambios de expectativas
Encuesta
efectuada
en el mes
de:
Inflación
2010
Inflación
2011
Tipo de
cambio
cierre
2009
Tipo de
cambio
cierre
2010
Cetes 28
días
cierre
2010
Crecimiento
del PIB
2009
Crecimiento
del PIB
2010
Ene. 2009 3.74% 3.52% 13.50 13.61 6.69% -1.16% 2.08%
Feb. 2009 3.76% 3.57% 14.10 14.01 6.57% -1.92% 2.00%
Mar. 2009 3.78% 3.59% 14.25 13.99 6.10% -3.32% 1.62%
Abr. 2009 3.80% 3.68% 13.65 13.64 5.88% -4.02% 1.68%
May. 2009 3.82% 3.70% 13.45 13.35 5.61% -5.82% 2.09%
Jun. 2009 3.86% 3.70% 13.47 13.47 5.30% -6.31% 2.05%
Jul. 2009 3.90% 3.68% 13.48 13.42 5.24% -6.93% 2.54%
Ago. 2009 4.01% 3.75% 13.22 13.33 5.38% -7.19% 2.85%
Sep. 2009 4.28% 3.83% 13.37 13.42 5.43% -7.18% 2.82%
Oct. 2009 4.54% 3.86% 13.31 13.29 5.61% -7.15% 2.94%
Nov. 2009 4.86% 4.04% 13.16 13.22 5.68% -7.02% 2.93%
Dic. 2009 5.04% 3.98% N/A 13.04 5.52% -7.03% 3.12%
Ene. 2010 4.93% 3.91% N/A 12.97 5.46% -6.93% 3.28%
Feb. 2010 5.21% 3.89% N/A 13.04 5.29% N/A 3.87%
Mar. 2010 5.28% 3.97% N/A 12.70 5.20% N/A 4.08%
Abr. 2010 5.19% 3.98% N/A 12.45 5.00% N/A 4.18%
May. 2010 4.94% 3.95% N/A 12.48 4.78% N/A 4.31%
Jun. 2010 4.66% 3.92% N/A 12.50 4.74% N/A 4.37%
Jul. 2010 4.59% 3.90% N/A 12.57 4.61% N/A 4.52%
Ago. 2010 4.43% 3.82% N/A 12.66 4.58% N/A 4.62%
Sep. 2010 4.33% 3.84% N/A 12.66 4.56% N/A 4.62%
Oct. 2010 4.30% 3.73% N/A 12.53 4.41% N/A 4.75%
Nov. 2010 4.38% 3.77% N/A 12.37 4.30% N/A 5.03%
Dic. 2010 4.40% 3.82% N/A N/A N/A N/A 5.08%
Dato real 4.40% N/A 13.08 12.36 4.30% -6.5% N/A
Nota: “N/A” implica que no se publicó encuesta en ese mes.
Año 16, Número 01 EXPECTATIVAS ECONÓMICAS PARA MÉXICO 7 de enero de 2011
Year 16, Number 01 ECONOMIC FORECASTS FOR MEXICO January 7, 2011
Acus Consultores Alberto Calva Acus Consulting
www.AcusConsultores.com.mx 10 de/of 18 www.AcusConsulting.com
Ni Acus Consultores, S.C. ni Alberto Calva Mercado se hacen responsables por las decisiones que se tomen con base en la información y
comentarios aquí presentados, ni por la exactitud de las cifras. Neither Acus Consulting. nor Alberto Calva are responsible for any decisions
made based on the information or comments here presented, neither fo r the accuracy of the figures.
EXPECTATIVAS PARA EL CLIMA DE LOS NEGOCIOS
Expectativas para el clima de negocios que prevalecerá durante los
próximos seis meses con relación a los seis meses anteriores
Encuesta mensual de Banxico entre instituciones privadas
(Distribución de las respuestas)
Encuesta efectuada en el
mes de:
Mejorará Permanecerá igual Empeorará
Abril 2009 10% 30% 60%
Mayo 2009 16% 48% 36%
Junio 2009 33% 50% 17%
Julio 2009 41% 50% 9%
Agosto 2009 63% 28% 9%
Septiembre 2009 74% 26% 0%
Octubre 2009 57% 32% 11%
Noviembre 2009 65% 28% 7%
Diciembre 2009 67% 22% 11%
Enero 2010 71% 29% 0%
Febrero 2010 83% 17% 0%
Marzo 2010 81% 19% 0%
Abril 2010 83% 17% 0%
Mayo 2010 71% 21% 7%
Junio 2010 76% 21% 3%
Julio 2010 48% 42% 10%
Agosto 2010 17% 60% 23%
Septiembre 2010 25% 50% 25%
Octubre 2010 30% 47% 23%
Noviembre 2010 36% 61% 4%
Diciembre 2010 43% 54% 4%
***
Promedio 2008 9% 32% 59%
Promedio 2009 37% 30% 33%
Promedio 2010 ene-dic 55% 37% 8%
Año 16, Número 01 EXPECTATIVAS ECONÓMICAS PARA MÉXICO 7 de enero de 2011
Year 16, Number 01 ECONOMIC FORECASTS FOR MEXICO January 7, 2011
Acus Consultores Alberto Calva Acus Consulting
www.AcusConsultores.com.mx 11 de/of 18 www.AcusConsulting.com
Ni Acus Consultores, S.C. ni Alberto Calva Mercado se hacen responsables por las decisiones que se tomen con base en la información y
comentarios aquí presentados, ni por la exactitud de las cifras. Neither Acus Consulting. nor Alberto Calva are responsible for any decisions
made based on the information or comments here presented, neither fo r the accuracy of the figures.
EXPECTATIVAS PARA EL CLIMA DE LOS NEGOCIOS
Indicadores sobre el nivel de confianza en la
situación actual de la economía y en su futuro próximo
Encuesta mensual de Banxico entre instituciones privadas
(Distribución de las respuestas en la encuesta efectuada en el mes de:)
Prom.
2006
Prom.
2007
Prom.
2008
Prom.
2009
Prom.
2010
ene-dic
Sep.
2010
Oct.
2010
Nov.
2010
Dic.
2010
1. ¿Considera que
actualmente la economía
mexicana está mejor que
hace un año?
SI
NO
91%
9%
37%
63%
14%
86%
10%
90%
88%
12%
91%
9%
93%
7%
93%
7%
96%
4%
2. ¿Espera que la evolución
económica del país sea
favorable en los próximos
seis meses?
SI
NO
54%
46%
64%
36%
19%
81%
53%
47%
79%
21%
53%
47%
57%
43%
79%
21%
79%
21%
3. ¿Cómo espera que se
comporte el empleo formal
en el país en los próximos
seis meses?
Aumente
Permanezca igual
Disminuya
76%
19%
5%
67%
24%
9%
38%
23%
40%
13%
16%
71%
78%
19%
4%
66%
22%
12%
70%
20%
10%
75%
25%
0%
79%
21%
0%
4. ¿Cómo considera que sea
la coyuntura actual de las
empresas para invertir?
Buen momento
Mal momento
No está seguro
47%
10%
43%
44%
11%
45%
17%
39%
44%
15%
49%
37%
40%
12%
49%
22%
22%
56%
24%
17%
59%
33%
4%
63%
46%
8%
46%
Año 16, Número 01 EXPECTATIVAS ECONÓMICAS PARA MÉXICO 7 de enero de 2011
Year 16, Number 01 ECONOMIC FORECASTS FOR MEXICO January 7, 2011
Acus Consultores Alberto Calva Acus Consulting
www.AcusConsultores.com.mx 12 de/of 18 www.AcusConsulting.com
Ni Acus Consultores, S.C. ni Alberto Calva Mercado se hacen responsables por las decisiones que se tomen con base en la información y
comentarios aquí presentados, ni por la exactitud de las cifras. Neither Acus Consulting. nor Alberto Calva are responsible for any decisions
made based on the information or comments here presented, neither fo r the accuracy of the figures.
EXPECTATIVAS ECONOMICAS PARA MEXICO
Factores que en los próximos meses podrían limitar
el ritmo de la recuperación de la actividad económica
Encuesta mensual de Banxico entre instituciones privadas
(Distribución de las respuestas en la encuesta efectuada en el mes de:)
Prom
2008
Prom
2009
Prom.
2010
ene-dic
Oct
2010
Nov
2010
Dic
2010
Factores externos:
Debilidad mdo. externo y de la econ. mundial 28 25 19 21 19 21
Inestabilidad financiera internacional 16 7 8 8 17 11
Los niveles de las tasas de interés externas 1 0 0 0 1 0
Contracción de la oferta de recursos del exterior 2 2 1 2 0 0
Precio de exportación del petróleo 3 2 0 2 0 0
Inestabilidad política internacional 0 0 0 0 0 0
Subtotal factores externos 50% 35% 29% 34% 37% 32%
Factores domésticos:
Problemas de inseguridad pública 5 6 15 17 19 21
Ausencia de reformas estructurales 16 18 22 21 20 19
Debilidad del mercado interno 3 12 14 12 10 12
Incertidumbre sobre situación económica interna 3 7 4 6 3 4
La política fiscal que se está instrumentando 2 6 6 3 5 2
Disponibilidad de financiamiento interno 1 2 3 2 2 2
Incertidumbre cambiaria --- 3 1 2 0 2
Elevado costo de financiamiento interno 1 2 1 1 1 1
La política monetaria que se está aplicando 3 1 1 1 1 1
Aumento en precios insumos y materias primas 4 0 0 0 1 1
Incertidumbre política interna 1 1 1 1 0 1
Presiones inflacionarias en el país 9 3 2 0 0 0
Aumento en los costos salariales 1 0 0 0 0 0
Lenta recuperación de los salarios reales 1 0 0 0 0 0
Escasez de mano de obra calificada 0 0 0 0 0 0
Otros 1 2 0 0 0 0
Subtotal factores domésticos 51% 64% 70% 66% 62% 66%
Total 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
Nota: Las sumas pueden no ser exactas por errores en el redondeo de los promedios
Año 16, Número 01 EXPECTATIVAS ECONÓMICAS PARA MÉXICO 7 de enero de 2011
Year 16, Number 01 ECONOMIC FORECASTS FOR MEXICO January 7, 2011
Acus Consultores Alberto Calva Acus Consulting
www.AcusConsultores.com.mx 13 de/of 18 www.AcusConsulting.com
Ni Acus Consultores, S.C. ni Alberto Calva Mercado se hacen responsables por las decisiones que se tomen con base en la información y
comentarios aquí presentados, ni por la exactitud de las cifras. Neither Acus Consulting. nor Alberto Calva are responsible for any decisions
made based on the information or comments here presented, neither fo r the accuracy of the figures.
ECONOMIC FORECASTS FOR MEXICO
Banxico’s monthly survey among private firms
Survey’s period:
December 7 to 15, 2010
This month’s
average
Last month’s
average
Average two
months ago
Inflation (2011)
(2012)
3.82%
3.78%
3.77%
3.75%
3.73%
3.78%
Exchange rate (close 2011)
(close 2012)
12.53
12.75
12.55
N/A
12.69
N/A
Cetes 28 days (close 2011)
(close 2012)
4.70%
5.82%
4.73%
N/A
5.06%
N/A
TIIE (interbank rate) (close 2011)
(close 2012)
4.77%
5.82%
4.75%
N/A
5.01%
N/A
GDP Mexico (growth rate) (2010)
(2011)
(2012)
5.08%
3.59%
4.04%
5.03%
3.46%
4.01%
4.75%
3.52%
4.06%
GDP U.S.A. (growth rate) (2010)
(2011)
2.8%
2.7%
2.7%
2.5%
2.7%
2.5%
Wages annual increase (expected this month)
(expected next month)
4.47%
4.49%
4.52%
4.37%
4.53%
3.62%
Trade balance deficit (2010)
(millions of USD) (2011)
5,285
9,980
5,213
10,964
5,750
11,606
Current account deficit (2010)
(millions of USD) (2011)
6,839
12,751
7,276
12,427
7,314
13,021
Foreign direct investment flow (2010)
(millions of USD) (2011)
18,391
19,808
18,711
19,478
18,857
19,913
Average oil price for the Mexican export mix
(USD per barrel) average year 2011
average first quarter 2011
average second quarter 2011
74.14
74.42
74.24
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
N/A
Año 16, Número 01 EXPECTATIVAS ECONÓMICAS PARA MÉXICO 7 de enero de 2011
Year 16, Number 01 ECONOMIC FORECASTS FOR MEXICO January 7, 2011
Acus Consultores Alberto Calva Acus Consulting
www.AcusConsultores.com.mx 14 de/of 18 www.AcusConsulting.com
Ni Acus Consultores, S.C. ni Alberto Calva Mercado se hacen responsables por las decisiones que se tomen con base en la información y
comentarios aquí presentados, ni por la exactitud de las cifras. Neither Acus Consulting. nor Alberto Calva are responsible for any decisions
made based on the information or comments here presented, neither fo r the accuracy of the figures.
ECONOMIC FORECASTS FOR MEXICO
Future markets
(as of December 31, 2010)
June 2011 Dec. 2011 June 2012 Dec. 2012 Dec. 2013
MXN-USD Chicago 12.54 12.77 13.03 N/A N/A
MXN-USD MexDer 12.52 12.79 13.07 13.34 13.84
MXN-EUR MexDer 16.79 17.10 N/A N/A N/A
USD-EUR Chicago 1.332 1.335 1.334 N/A N/A
USD-CAD Chicago 1.002 0.996 0.991 N/A N/A
TIIE 28 days MexDer 4.98% 5.52% 5.78% 6.26% 7.33%
Cetes 91 days MexDer 4.78% 5.00% 5.61% 6.81% 7.22%
Mexican Stock
Exchange MexDer
(index)
39,045 N/A N/A N/A N/A
Mexican Stock
Exchange MexDer
(% increase)
1.28%
versus
Dec.2010
N/A N/A N/A N/A
Chicago: Chicago Mercantile Exchange
MexDer: Mercado Mexicano de Derivados (Mexican Derivatives Market),
MXN: Mexican Peso
USD: US Dollar
CAD: Canadian Dollar
EUR: Euro
TIIE: Mexican interbank rate
Cetes: Mexican treasury bills
Año 16, Número 01 EXPECTATIVAS ECONÓMICAS PARA MÉXICO 7 de enero de 2011
Year 16, Number 01 ECONOMIC FORECASTS FOR MEXICO January 7, 2011
Acus Consultores Alberto Calva Acus Consulting
www.AcusConsultores.com.mx 15 de/of 18 www.AcusConsulting.com
Ni Acus Consultores, S.C. ni Alberto Calva Mercado se hacen responsables por las decisiones que se tomen con base en la información y
comentarios aquí presentados, ni por la exactitud de las cifras. Neither Acus Consulting. nor Alberto Calva are responsible for any decisions
made based on the information or comments here presented, neither fo r the accuracy of the figures.
ECONOMIC FORECASTS FOR MEXICO
Banxico’s monthly survey among private firms
Forecasts change in the last months
Survey
made in the
month of:
Inflation
2010
Inflation
2011
Exchange
rate
close of
2009
Exchange
rate
close of
2010
Cetes 28
days
close of
2010
GDP
growth rate
2009
GDP
growth rate
2010
Jan. 2009 3.74% 3.52% 13.50 13.61 6.69% -1.16% 2.08%
Feb. 2009 3.76% 3.57% 14.10 14.01 6.57% -1.92% 2.00%
Mar. 2009 3.78% 3.59% 14.25 13.99 6.10% -3.32% 1.62%
Apr. 2009 3.80% 3.68% 13.65 13.64 5.88% -4.02% 1.68%
May 2009 3.82% 3.70% 13.45 13.35 5.61% -5.82% 2.09%
June 2009 3.86% 3.70% 13.47 13.47 5.30% -6.31% 2.05%
July 2009 3.90% 3.68% 13.48 13.42 5.24% -6.93% 2.54%
Aug. 2009 4.01% 3.75% 13.22 13.33 5.38% -7.19% 2.85%
Sep. 2009 4.28% 3.83% 13.37 13.42 5.43% -7.18% 2.82%
Oct. 2009 4.54% 3.86% 13.31 13.29 5.61% -7.15% 2.94%
Nov. 2009 4.86% 4.04% 13.16 13.22 5.68% -7.02% 2.93%
Dec. 2009 5.04% 3.98% N/A 13.04 5.52% -7.03% 3.12%
Jan. 2010 4.93% 3.91% N/A 12.97 5.46% -6.93% 3.28%
Feb. 2010 5.21% 3.89% N/A 13.04 5.29% N/A 3.87%
Mar. 2010 5.28% 3.97% N/A 12.70 5.20% N/A 4.08%
Apr. 2010 5.19% 3.98% N/A 12.45 5.00% N/A 4.18%
May 2010 4.94% 3.95% N/A 12.48 4.78% N/A 4.31%
June 2010 4.66% 3.92% N/A 12.50 4.74% N/A 4.37%
July 2010 4.59% 3.90% N/A 12.57 4.61% N/A 4.52%
Aug. 2010 4.43% 3.82% N/A 12.66 4.58% N/A 4.62%
Sep. 2010 4.33% 3.84% N/A 12.66 4.56% N/A 4.62%
Oct. 2010 4.30% 3.73% N/A 12.53 4.41% N/A 4.75%
Nov. 2010 4.38% 3.77% N/A 12.37 4.30% N/A 5.03%
Dec. 2010 4.40% 3.82% N/A N/A N/A N/A 5.08%
Actual
figure
N/A N/A 13.08 12.36 4.30% -6.5% N/A
Note: “N/A” means there was no survey published that month.
Año 16, Número 01 EXPECTATIVAS ECONÓMICAS PARA MÉXICO 7 de enero de 2011
Year 16, Number 01 ECONOMIC FORECASTS FOR MEXICO January 7, 2011
Acus Consultores Alberto Calva Acus Consulting
www.AcusConsultores.com.mx 16 de/of 18 www.AcusConsulting.com
Ni Acus Consultores, S.C. ni Alberto Calva Mercado se hacen responsables por las decisiones que se tomen con base en la información y
comentarios aquí presentados, ni por la exactitud de las cifras. Neither Acus Consulting. nor Alberto Calva are responsible for any decisions
made based on the information or comments here presented, neither fo r the accuracy of the figures.
FORECASTS FOR THE BUSINESS CLIMATE
Forecasts for the business climate that is expected for the next six
months compared with the six previous last months
Banxico’s monthly survey among private firms
(Answers distribution)
Survey made in
the month of:
Situation will improve
Situation will remain
more or less the same
Situation will be worse
April 2009 10% 30% 60%
May 2009 16% 48% 36%
June 2009 33% 50% 17%
July 2009 41% 50% 9%
August 2009 63% 28% 9%
September 2009 74% 26% 0%
October 2009 57% 32% 11%
November 2009 65% 28% 7%
December 2009 67% 22% 11%
January 2010 71% 29% 0%
February 2010 83% 17% 0%
March 2010 81% 19% 0%
April 2010 83% 17% 0%
May 2010 71% 21% 7%
June 2010 76% 21% 3%
July 2010 48% 42% 10%
August 2010 17% 60% 23%
September 2010 25% 50% 25%
October 2010 30% 47% 23%
November 2010 36% 61% 4%
December 2010 43% 54% 4%
***
Average 2008 9% 32% 59%
Average 2009 37% 30% 33%
Average 2010 Jan-Dec 55% 37% 8%
Año 16, Número 01 EXPECTATIVAS ECONÓMICAS PARA MÉXICO 7 de enero de 2011
Year 16, Number 01 ECONOMIC FORECASTS FOR MEXICO January 7, 2011
Acus Consultores Alberto Calva Acus Consulting
www.AcusConsultores.com.mx 17 de/of 18 www.AcusConsulting.com
Ni Acus Consultores, S.C. ni Alberto Calva Mercado se hacen responsables por las decisiones que se tomen con base en la información y
comentarios aquí presentados, ni por la exactitud de las cifras. Neither Acus Consulting. nor Alberto Calva are responsible for any decisions
made based on the information or comments here presented, neither fo r the accuracy of the figures.
FORECASTS FOR THE BUSINESS CLIMATE
Confidence level indicators over the
economy’s present situation and close future
Banxico monthly survey among private firms
(Answers distribution for the survey made in the month of:)
Avge
2006
Avge
2007
Avge
2008
Avge.
2009
Avge.
2010
Jan-
Dec
Sep.
2010
Oct.
2010
Nov.
2010
Dec.
2010
1. Do you consider that the
Mexican economy is today
better than a year ago?
YES
NO
91%
9%
37%
63%
14%
86%
10%
90%
88%
12%
91%
9%
93%
7%
93%
7%
96%
4%
2. Do you expect that the
evolution for the Mexican
economy will be favorable in
the next six months?
YES
NO
54%
46%
64%
36%
19%
81%
53%
47%
79%
21%
53%
47%
57%
43%
79%
21%
79%
21%
3. How do you expect is
going to be the
employment’s behavior in
the next six months?
It will increase
Will remain the same
It will decrease
76%
19%
5%
67%
24%
9%
38%
23%
40%
13%
16%
71%
78%
19%
4%
66%
22%
12%
70%
20%
10%
75%
25%
0%
79%
21%
0%
4. How do you consider the
present time for businesses
to invest?
A good moment
A bad moment
Not sure
47%
10%
43%
44%
11%
45%
17%
39%
44%
15%
49%
37%
40%
12%
49%
22%
22%
56%
24%
17%
59%
33%
4%
63%
46%
8%
46%
Año 16, Número 01 EXPECTATIVAS ECONÓMICAS PARA MÉXICO 7 de enero de 2011
Year 16, Number 01 ECONOMIC FORECASTS FOR MEXICO January 7, 2011
Acus Consultores Alberto Calva Acus Consulting
www.AcusConsultores.com.mx 18 de/of 18 www.AcusConsulting.com
Ni Acus Consultores, S.C. ni Alberto Calva Mercado se hacen responsables por las decisiones que se tomen con base en la información y
comentarios aquí presentados, ni por la exactitud de las cifras. Neither Acus Consulting. nor Alberto Calva are responsible for any decisions
made based on the information or comments here presented, neither fo r the accuracy of the figures.
ECONOMIC FORECASTS FOR MEXICO
Factors that could limit the
Economic activity recovery in the next months
Banxico’s monthly survey among private firms
(Answers distribution for the survey made in the month of:)
Avge
2008
Avge.
2009
Avge.
2010
Jan-
Dec
Oct.
2010
Nov.
2010
Dec.
2010
External factors:
Foreign markets and world economy weakness 28 25 19 21 19 21
International financial instability 16 7 8 8 17 11
Foreign interest rate levels 1 0 0 0 1 0
Contraction of foreign resources supply 2 2 1 2 0 0
Export oil price 3 2 0 2 0 0
International political instability 0 0 0 0 0 0
Subtotal external factors 50% 35% 29% 34% 37% 32%
Domestic factors:
Public insecurity problems 5 6 15 17 19 21
Lack of structural reforms 16 18 22 21 20 19
Domestic market weakness 3 12 14 12 10 12
Uncertainty on domestic economic situation 3 7 4 6 3 4
The tax policy being instrumented 2 6 6 3 5 2
Availability of domestic credit 1 2 3 2 2 2
Exchange rate uncertainty --- 3 1 2 0 2
High cost of domestic credit 1 2 1 1 1 1
The monetary policy in use 3 1 1 1 1 1
Increase in prices of raw materials and supplies 4 0 0 0 1 1
Domestic political uncertainty 1 1 1 1 0 1
Domestic inflation pressure 9 3 2 0 0 0
Increase in the cost of wages 1 0 0 0 0 0
Real wages low recovery 1 0 0 0 0 0
Scarcity of qualified labor 0 0 0 0 0 0
Others 1 2 0 0 0 0
Subtotal domestic factors 51% 64% 70% 66% 62% 66%
Total 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%
Totals may not add exactly 100% because of the average rounding.
Tourism Ministry Will Promote Medical Tourism This Year in Mexico
Tourism Ministry will promote medical tourism this year
Written by Real eStrategy 2 Tourist Market Jan 12, 2011 Before finishing the first half of the year, the Tourism Ministry plans to formalize and launch, in conjunction with the Health Secretariat (SSA) - a certification program for providers of tourist services and health, as well as specific promotion, to potentiate tourism healthcare in the country.
The Secretary of Tourism, Gloria Guevara, predicted that between March and April dependence SSA heads and begin to implement a program to trigger health tourism ... The Tourism Ministry official pointed out that, in addition to positioning the country's hospital network abroad , shall certify hotels that meet the infrastructure requirements (eg disabled access).
According to studies by the consulting firm AT Kearney, in 2009 the medical tourism generated revenue capture by 122 million dollars annually, which represents $ 90 million expense for the use of medical services and $ 35 million for travel. However, generated an entire cluster , the company predicts an arrival in 2015 of 400 thousand to 450 thousand visitors and generate an economic benefit to the country close to 350 thousand million dollars.
http://www.tibesarealty.com.mx/
www.tibesarealty.com.mx/wordpress/
El Financiero
Written by Real eStrategy 2 Tourist Market Jan 12, 2011 Before finishing the first half of the year, the Tourism Ministry plans to formalize and launch, in conjunction with the Health Secretariat (SSA) - a certification program for providers of tourist services and health, as well as specific promotion, to potentiate tourism healthcare in the country.
The Secretary of Tourism, Gloria Guevara, predicted that between March and April dependence SSA heads and begin to implement a program to trigger health tourism ... The Tourism Ministry official pointed out that, in addition to positioning the country's hospital network abroad , shall certify hotels that meet the infrastructure requirements (eg disabled access).
According to studies by the consulting firm AT Kearney, in 2009 the medical tourism generated revenue capture by 122 million dollars annually, which represents $ 90 million expense for the use of medical services and $ 35 million for travel. However, generated an entire cluster , the company predicts an arrival in 2015 of 400 thousand to 450 thousand visitors and generate an economic benefit to the country close to 350 thousand million dollars.
http://www.tibesarealty.com.mx/
www.tibesarealty.com.mx/wordpress/
El Financiero
Housing Sector Will Underpin Growth In the Country Mexico
Housing sector will underpin growth in the country: SHCP
Written by eStrategy 2 Real Housing Sector Jan 12, 2011 The Secretary of Finance said that since economic growth scenarios for Mexico in this 2011, "the housing industry will be crucial to shore up our economy," he said.
Speaking at the presentation of the Finance Sector Housing 2011, said that in the next 12 months will receive a downward trend in interest rates of credit and that this factor is coupled with the growing trend and report the consumer credit, business and the housing.
After the event, the Secretary Lamb in an interview said the federal government has a courageous public safety and said that decisions taken today should be done in a while.
This year the housing sector is in its forecasts sales of 750 thousand new homes of all socio-economic levels on Mexican soil.
According to the director general of the National Housing Commission (Conavi), Ariel Cano Cuevas, investment in housing loans, by all housing agencies and private financial institutions, ranging from 250 billion pesos during 2011, which exceed 240 billion last year exercised.
But he acknowledged that it is far from 2008 levels. Softec dispatch data predict that this year sales in the 80 main places of the country would total 19 billion dollars.
During the 2008 construction and new home sales were reported turnover of 30 billion dollars.
This year it is expected that the revival of the industry itself is now supported credits, in particular for building new housing.
The president of the Association of Banks of Mexico, Ignacio Deschamps, said that given the results of 2010 (the bank originated 11.5% more mortgages than in 2009), "we should be optimistic about the sector risks: increased investment in housing construction and stable prices. This invites us to invest with firmness. "
For its part, the general director of the Federal Mortgage Society (SHF), Javier Gavito Mohar, explained that they will spend 15 thousand 449 million pesos to finance housing construction during 2011.
http://www.tibesarealty.com.mx/
www.tibesarealty.com.mx/wprdpress/
Written by eStrategy 2 Real Housing Sector Jan 12, 2011 The Secretary of Finance said that since economic growth scenarios for Mexico in this 2011, "the housing industry will be crucial to shore up our economy," he said.
Speaking at the presentation of the Finance Sector Housing 2011, said that in the next 12 months will receive a downward trend in interest rates of credit and that this factor is coupled with the growing trend and report the consumer credit, business and the housing.
After the event, the Secretary Lamb in an interview said the federal government has a courageous public safety and said that decisions taken today should be done in a while.
This year the housing sector is in its forecasts sales of 750 thousand new homes of all socio-economic levels on Mexican soil.
According to the director general of the National Housing Commission (Conavi), Ariel Cano Cuevas, investment in housing loans, by all housing agencies and private financial institutions, ranging from 250 billion pesos during 2011, which exceed 240 billion last year exercised.
But he acknowledged that it is far from 2008 levels. Softec dispatch data predict that this year sales in the 80 main places of the country would total 19 billion dollars.
During the 2008 construction and new home sales were reported turnover of 30 billion dollars.
This year it is expected that the revival of the industry itself is now supported credits, in particular for building new housing.
The president of the Association of Banks of Mexico, Ignacio Deschamps, said that given the results of 2010 (the bank originated 11.5% more mortgages than in 2009), "we should be optimistic about the sector risks: increased investment in housing construction and stable prices. This invites us to invest with firmness. "
For its part, the general director of the Federal Mortgage Society (SHF), Javier Gavito Mohar, explained that they will spend 15 thousand 449 million pesos to finance housing construction during 2011.
http://www.tibesarealty.com.mx/
www.tibesarealty.com.mx/wprdpress/
Mexican Company Dahn Start Bicentennial Tower and Shopping Center For $650 Million Dollars Toreo in Mexico
Dahn start Bicentennial Tower and shopping center for 650 million dollars Toreo
Written by Real eStrategy 2 Malls , Commercial RE News , Corporate Offices and Jan 12, 2011 Will be during the first quarter of 2011 when Grupo Dahn resume a couple of large-scale real estate projects, which the 2008 recession and subsequent financial drought had to stop.
Since yesterday I overtook one thing: it is building a 25-story building in front of the Bosque de Chapultepec and at the time was called the Bicentennial Tower. Will mean an investment of 150 million dollars. The tower will be built on an area of five thousand meters occupied by the old Super Service Lomas, in the Miguel Hidalgo. In December began the demolition of the structure by architect Vladimir Kasper, listed by the INBA. At the end there was an agreement with the authorities and their own SEP, Alonso Lujambio, to make way for new building to be developed by the famed Teodoro González de León.
The tower will have 120 thousand square meters. Of these 60 thousand meters will be for offices and the remainder for parking spaces. The excavation, which will involve an investment of close to ten million dollars to be financed with own resources, start this month.
www,tibesarealty.com.mx
http://www.tibesarealty.com.mx/
Excelsior
Written by Real eStrategy 2 Malls , Commercial RE News , Corporate Offices and Jan 12, 2011 Will be during the first quarter of 2011 when Grupo Dahn resume a couple of large-scale real estate projects, which the 2008 recession and subsequent financial drought had to stop.
Since yesterday I overtook one thing: it is building a 25-story building in front of the Bosque de Chapultepec and at the time was called the Bicentennial Tower. Will mean an investment of 150 million dollars. The tower will be built on an area of five thousand meters occupied by the old Super Service Lomas, in the Miguel Hidalgo. In December began the demolition of the structure by architect Vladimir Kasper, listed by the INBA. At the end there was an agreement with the authorities and their own SEP, Alonso Lujambio, to make way for new building to be developed by the famed Teodoro González de León.
The tower will have 120 thousand square meters. Of these 60 thousand meters will be for offices and the remainder for parking spaces. The excavation, which will involve an investment of close to ten million dollars to be financed with own resources, start this month.
www,tibesarealty.com.mx
http://www.tibesarealty.com.mx/
Excelsior
Siemens and Iberdrola Wind Project in Tamaulipas Mexico Materialize
Siemens and Iberdrola wind project in Tamaulipas materialize
28/11/2010 20:15
Mexican subsidiaries of the companies Iberdrola of Spain, and Siemens of Germany will invest 4.400 million dollars to build a wind power project in the state of Tamaulipas.
This project called The Orchards will be installed in the municipality of San Fernando, and will be managed by both companies during the first 18 years. After this period of time will be assets of state government.
The wind farm will supply electricity to public buildings, municipal and state in the state, which will generate savings of between 5% and 10%.
Project construction will take a year and will feature 70 towers of 80 meters.
The wind farm will have a generating capacity of 161 megawatts of clean energy that will reduce 25% the emission of greenhouse gases and meet the demand of hospitals, schools and public offices.
http://www.tibesarealty.com.mx/
www.tibesarealty.com.mx/wordpress/
28/11/2010 20:15
Mexican subsidiaries of the companies Iberdrola of Spain, and Siemens of Germany will invest 4.400 million dollars to build a wind power project in the state of Tamaulipas.
This project called The Orchards will be installed in the municipality of San Fernando, and will be managed by both companies during the first 18 years. After this period of time will be assets of state government.
The wind farm will supply electricity to public buildings, municipal and state in the state, which will generate savings of between 5% and 10%.
Project construction will take a year and will feature 70 towers of 80 meters.
The wind farm will have a generating capacity of 161 megawatts of clean energy that will reduce 25% the emission of greenhouse gases and meet the demand of hospitals, schools and public offices.
http://www.tibesarealty.com.mx/
www.tibesarealty.com.mx/wordpress/
The Flow Of Foreign Tourists Increase 16.2% In Mexico
The flow of foreign tourists increases 16.2%
09/01/2011 18:05
International tourist arrivals by air grew by 16.2% from January to November 2010, in the same quarter of 2009, according to figures from the Ministry of Tourism (Tourism Ministry).
During this period, entered the country via air 988.434 8 million passengers, this is 5.8% more than in the comparable period in 2008.
A Mexico reached 380.058 5 million American tourists, representing an increase of 11.7% between January and November 2010 over the same period in 2009.
In the same period reached 266.290 1 million Canadians, an increase of 21.7% compared with those admitted in the first 11 months of 2009.
The airport terminals in the country received 15.4% more tourists from the UK, registering 274.781, against the 238, 131 passengers reported a year earlier.
Latin America
Argentina is the Latin American country sent more visitors in this period, Mexico welcomed 158.688 visitors from that country, an increase of 36.3%.
Brazil entered 103.735 passengers, an increase of 76.7% compared with the first 11 months of 2009.
Statistics from the Ministry of Tourism indicate that the year 2010 reached 22 million 600 thousand foreign tourists.
http://www.tibesarealty.com.mx/
http://www.tibesarealty.com.mx/
09/01/2011 18:05
International tourist arrivals by air grew by 16.2% from January to November 2010, in the same quarter of 2009, according to figures from the Ministry of Tourism (Tourism Ministry).
During this period, entered the country via air 988.434 8 million passengers, this is 5.8% more than in the comparable period in 2008.
A Mexico reached 380.058 5 million American tourists, representing an increase of 11.7% between January and November 2010 over the same period in 2009.
In the same period reached 266.290 1 million Canadians, an increase of 21.7% compared with those admitted in the first 11 months of 2009.
The airport terminals in the country received 15.4% more tourists from the UK, registering 274.781, against the 238, 131 passengers reported a year earlier.
Latin America
Argentina is the Latin American country sent more visitors in this period, Mexico welcomed 158.688 visitors from that country, an increase of 36.3%.
Brazil entered 103.735 passengers, an increase of 76.7% compared with the first 11 months of 2009.
Statistics from the Ministry of Tourism indicate that the year 2010 reached 22 million 600 thousand foreign tourists.
http://www.tibesarealty.com.mx/
http://www.tibesarealty.com.mx/
Hotel Announced Investment of $10,000 Million Pesos in Heritage Tourism Mexico
Hotel announced investment of 10.000 million pesos in heritage tourism
13/01/2011 14:58
With an initial budget of 10.000 million pesos start the program to revive old historical manors and country, in order to create a best of tourism in Mexico.
According to the Federation of Farms, Ranches and Historic Hotels of Mexico, there are 800 farms and houses with different degrees of conservation in the country, of which only 300 can be converted into hotels and quality restaurants.
The idea is to rescue, not just the Treasury Police helmets, but give them a whole infrastructure, which in some cases include racecourses and golf courses to capture the most demanding tourist, but also the economic opportunities of children.
The owners of these historic buildings seek to revive the tourism industry, restaurant business, in places like Hacienda Penuelas, where he was en route Independence Hidalgo, located in Aguascalientes.
Apart from travelers who are estimated to receive in this project, the Federation of Farms, Ranches and Tourism of Mexico AC Hotels also plans to catch the cultural tourist from Europe, more interested in ecotourism and Mexican culture.
On the other hand, many of these estates, of the 800 that exist in the country, could serve as a residence for hundreds of foreign retirees.
This will be accomplished through the construction of residential areas around the farms.
http://www.tibesarealty.com.mx/
http://www.tibesarealty.com.mx/
13/01/2011 14:58
With an initial budget of 10.000 million pesos start the program to revive old historical manors and country, in order to create a best of tourism in Mexico.
According to the Federation of Farms, Ranches and Historic Hotels of Mexico, there are 800 farms and houses with different degrees of conservation in the country, of which only 300 can be converted into hotels and quality restaurants.
The idea is to rescue, not just the Treasury Police helmets, but give them a whole infrastructure, which in some cases include racecourses and golf courses to capture the most demanding tourist, but also the economic opportunities of children.
The owners of these historic buildings seek to revive the tourism industry, restaurant business, in places like Hacienda Penuelas, where he was en route Independence Hidalgo, located in Aguascalientes.
Apart from travelers who are estimated to receive in this project, the Federation of Farms, Ranches and Tourism of Mexico AC Hotels also plans to catch the cultural tourist from Europe, more interested in ecotourism and Mexican culture.
On the other hand, many of these estates, of the 800 that exist in the country, could serve as a residence for hundreds of foreign retirees.
This will be accomplished through the construction of residential areas around the farms.
http://www.tibesarealty.com.mx/
http://www.tibesarealty.com.mx/
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